000 AXNT20 KNHC 121805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over western Africa with axis near 13W from 08N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with low to moderate shallow moisture in its surroundings as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Isolated heavy showers and tstms are E of the wave axis in the NW Liberia. A tropical wave is in the Central Atlc with axis near 39W from 01N-08N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is low amplitude and is mainly embedded in a dry and dusty environment as indicated by Meteosat SAL and Dust imagery. No convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave is in the far western tropical Atlantic with axis near 62W S of 16N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with a trough in the 700 mb and is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb that along with a divergent environment aloft support scattered showers S of 15N between 59W and 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 08N20W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 04N41W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough E of 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to dominate across the Gulf waters being anchored by a 1021 mb high in the NE basin near 27N87W. In the vicinity of the center of high pressure winds are light and variable. Southeasterly moderate wind is across the remainder Gulf, which advects moisture from the Caribbean to the region. In the upper levels, a short-wave trough over the NW basin and a ridge anchored over West-central Mexico generate a diffluent environment in the NW and portions of the SW Gulf. This environment aloft along with the moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 22N W of 94W and isolated showers and tstms N of 26N. Surface high pressure will prevail through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered heavy showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the coasts of Northern Panama and Costa Rica. Otherwise, scattered showers are occurring in the Windward Islands associated with a tropical wave that will be moving into the SE Caribbean later today. Please see the waves section above for details. Water vapor and CIRA layer PW imagery show dry air dominating both near the surface and aloft across the remainder basin, which supports fair weather. A tighter pressure gradient prevails in the South-central basin that supports fresh to strong trades from 10N-15N between 70W and 80W. The tropical wave to enter the SE Caribbean will move into central waters by Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the South-central region and will amplify N-NW through the middle to the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are along the northern Island and scattered showers are in northern adjacent waters associated with the remnants of a frontal system currently being analyzed as a surface trough across the central Bahamas. Showers will increase across the island Mon as the feature N of the area prevails and moisture associated with a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle level trough over the W Atlc continue to support a stationary front that extends from 30N50W to 26N60W to 24N68W where it transitions to a surface trough along 23N73W to the North-central Bahamas near 25N77W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are S of 26N between 65W and 78W. Surface high pressure dominate elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for surface ridging to dominate the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS