000 AXNT20 KNHC 120533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis from 15N10W to 04N10W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with weak troughing at 700 mb and low-level moisture in its surroundings as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered light to moderate convection prevails to the west of the wave from 11N-16N between 11W-18W. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 09N35W to 00N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist environment. NO significant convection is observed within this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 15N57W to 04N61W, moving W at 15 kt. A broad inverted V pattern is depicted in Visible/IR imagery, and a moist environment is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave affecting Guyana and Venezuela. Isolated showers are north of 10N between 56W-63W. A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with axis extending from 18N90W into the EPAC near 10N90W, moving W at 15 kt. The combination of this wave with an upper-level low is supporting scattered moderate convection from 08N-18N between 87W-92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 04N38W. The ITCZ extends from 04N38W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 08N between 22W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb surface high centered over the western Atlantic extends its ridge west across the Gulf waters. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the basin as noted in scatterometer data. A Surface trough developed over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and it is moving west across the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. Expect during the next 24 hours for a surface high to develop over the western portion of the basin. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave with considerable convection is moving west over Central America. Please see the section above for details. With this feature and the support of an upper-level low developing north of Honduras, scattered moderate convection prevails across Central America from the Yucatan peninsula to Nicaragua. Isolated convection transported by the moderate to fresh trades prevails across the remainder of the basin. An area of stronger winds is depicted in scatterometer data south of 15N between 70W-77W. Expect over the next 24 hours for Central America tropical wave to move west into the EPAC with convection. An increase of tropical moisture is expected over the eastern Caribbean with the approach of the next tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected within the next 24 hours due to low-level moisture transported by the trades and daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N75W. A surface trough extends across eastern Florida near 27N80W into the adjacent water of Bahamas near 24N70W. A stationary front then extends from 24N70W to 31N52W. Isolated convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of these boundaries. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N32W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please see the section above for details. Expect in 24 hours for the waves to continue moving west. Surface ridging will dominate the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA