000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along 06W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with weak troughing at 700 mb and low moisture in its surroundings as noted on LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb. No convection is associated with it at this time. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near 32W from 01N to 08N, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist environment. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the west tropical Atlantic with axis near 56W S of 15N, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. A moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is indicated by CIRA LPW imagery that along with a divergent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 15N between 53W and 62W. A tropical wave is moving across Central America into the EPAC with axis near 86W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. Abundant moisture in the region support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 11N-18N between 80W and 86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N20W to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 04N34W to 01N45W. Beside the convection associated with the tropical wave. Scattered showers are from 04N-10N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging dominates in the SE CONUS and adjacent Atlantic waters and extends SW across Florida and the Gulf, thus providing mostly gentle to moderate SE flow basin-wide. In the SW Gulf waters, a weak surface trough extends from 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Moisture advection from the Caribbean by SE flow along with a divergent environment aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms S of 24N W of the trough axis and isolated showers E of it. No major changes expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of an upper-level low and a tropical wave moving across Central America is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms across the SW Caribbean and the NW basin S of 19N. See the tropical waves section above for details about the convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in the W and E Caribbean and fresh to strong in the South-central waters from 11N-16N between 68W and 82W. Expect during the next 24 hours for an increase of tropical moisture across the Windward Islands with the approach of a tropical wave. The convection over the SW Caribbean will weaken as the upper- level low moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island favored by subsidence of dry air from aloft and strong deep layer wind shear. Similar conditions are expected through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 33N74W. SE of this feature, a cold front extends from 30N56W to 25N68W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm either side of the front. The Azores high dominates elsewhere being anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N32W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS