000 AXNT20 KNHC 111046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0805 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis extending from 14N03W to 02N05W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 04W-10W and a surge of moisture surrounds the wave as noted on TPW imagery. No significant convection is observed at this time with this wave. A tropical wave is across the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 12N28W to 01N31W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 29W-33W. It is likely this wave will remain low-latitude the next several days as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave's axis, but it is mostly related to the proximity of the monsoon trough. Another low-latitude tropical wave extends its axis from 13N53W to 00N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The classic inverted V pattern can be observed with this wave on Visible/IR imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 07N between 52W-60W. A tropical wave extends its axis across Central America and the EPAC from 16N85W to 04N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 75W-85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave between 76W-90W enhanced by an upper-level trough centered over the western Caribbean. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N34W to 02N50W. Isolated convection prevails within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The surface ridge that is centered over the west Atlantic and eastern CONUS extends across the Gulf waters. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is observed along a surface trough that extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 19N92W. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of an upper-level low and the proximity of a tropical wave currently over Central America is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection across the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 16N and west of 75W. Lighter convection is observed north of 16N between 75W-87W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades prevailing across the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Expect during the next 24 hours for an increase of tropical moisture across the Windward Islands with the approach of a tropical wave. The convection over the SW Caribbean will weaken as the upper-level low moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated convection is expected to develop in the afternoon hours due to daytime heating/orographic lifting. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N74W. South of this feature, a cold front extends from 24N73W to a 1015 mb low near 31N57W. Isolated convection prevails along the front and low. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N34W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect for the front to move east while weakening during the next 24 hours. The tropical waves will continue moving west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA