000 AXNT20 KNHC 110547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0205 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis extending from 14N02W to 01N03W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 02W-08W and a surge of moisture surrounds the wave as noted on TPW imagery. No significant convection is observed at this time with this wave. A tropical wave is across the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 12N27W to 00N27W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 24W-31W. It is likely this wave will remain low-latitude the next several days as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave's axis but it is related to the proximity of the monsoon trough. Another low-latitude tropical wave extends its axis from 12N52W to 00N55W, moving W at 20 kt. The classic inverted V pattern can be observed with this wave on Visible/IR imagery. Isolated moderate convection is observed along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 08N between 52W-58W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 16N83W into the EPAC near 03N82W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 75W-85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave between 76W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 02N50W. Isolated convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of both boundaries mainly east of 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The surface ridge that is centered over the west Atlantic and eastern CONUS extends across the Gulf waters. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is observed west of the Yucatan peninsula affecting the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 23N. Another area of lighter convection is observed across the Florida Straits which is moving north from Cuba and the northwest Caribbean waters. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave with considerable convection is over the SW Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for more details. To the north of this feature, an upper-level low centered near 18N82W is supporting convection between 77W-85W affecting Cuba and the SE Gulf waters. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades prevailing across the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Expect during the next 24 hours for SW Caribbean tropical wave to move into the EPAC with convection. Expect an increase of tropical moisture across the Windward Islands with the approach of the next tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated convection is expected to develop in the afternoon hours due to daytime heating/orographic lifting. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N75W. South of this feature, a cold front extends from 25N77W to 29N67W to a 1015 mb low centered near 30N61W then to 31N57W. Isolated convection prevails along the front and low. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N37W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect for the front to move east while weakening during the next 24 hours. The tropical waves will continue moving west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA