000 AXNT20 KNHC 101209 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT FRI 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 21W from 3N-10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 47W/48W from 4N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave trails a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 8N-11N between 45W-48W. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 80W from 15N to across Panama moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and is embedded within a large surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are south of 12N between 75W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W along 10N22W to 5N30W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N34W 5N41W to South America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-7N east of 15W to the coast of Sierra Leone, Africa. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of line from 4N23W to 6N30W and within 60 nm of line from 9N48W to 7N54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough over the northwest Atlantic is supporting a stationary front that extends through the west Atlantic across the Florida panhandle. A remnant surface trough is over the northwest Gulf extending from 29N92W to 26N96W. Isolated showers are north of 25N west of 90W to inland over the coast of Louisiana and Texas. An upper ridge anchored over the north coast of Yucatan extends over the southeast Gulf, across south Florida and into the west Atlantic giving most of the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A diurnal surface trough extends from 22N90W along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula to over south Mexico near 18N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N across the entire Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are possible over the southeast Gulf from 23N-27N east of 87W to over Florida. A high pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf on Saturday night then shift southwest to over the central Gulf on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge anchored over the southeast Gulf of Mexico covers the Caribbean west of 84W. An elongated upper low is centered in the central Caribbean near 17N79W and extends a trough axis north over central Cuba to near 22N80W and south to 12N79W with a surface trough extending from the Bahamas near 23N75W across Cuba to near 19N79W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 17N-20N between 80W-81W. Isolated showers are possible from 12N-18N between 75W-81W. Clear skies are across the east Caribbean east of 73W. The tropical wave will move across the southwest Caribbean tonight then move inland across Central America Saturday. A second tropical wave will enter the Caribbean Sunday. Strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will spread west across the southwest Caribbean on Saturday. Near gale force winds are expected along the northwest coast of Colombia tonight. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across the southwest peninsula of Haiti this morning. These showers will move west of the island later this morning giving way to clearer skies for today. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area and a stationary front from 32N60W along 31N67W through a weak 1015 mb low near 29N72W then continues over the Florida Panhandle just south of the Georgia border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front to a line from Cuba near 23N79W along 26N69W to beyond 32N55W. The upper ridge anchored over the north coast of the Yucatan extends into the west Atlantic over south Florida and the Straits of Florida to 25N76W covering the area south of 27N east of 76W. A surface trough, previously the north portion of the Caribbean tropical wave, extends from the Bahamas near 23N75W across Cuba to near 19N79W. A remnant surface trough is in the east Atlantic extending through 32N25W to 25N31W. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 29N37W. The west Atlantic 1015 mb low will move into the central Atlantic dragging the front southeast again as a cold front. This weak front will stall from 32N52W along 25N65W to the Windward Passage late Saturday. A surface high will develop near 31N77W tonight and shift east to 31N73W on Saturday night, then lose identity in a ridge that will building from east to west along 24N65W to northeast Florida on Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW