000 AXNT20 KNHC 100548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT FRI 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 19W/20W from 3N-12N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 45W/46W from 3N-11N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave trails a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 78W/79W from Jamaica to Panama moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model and is embedded within a large surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N-13N between 77W-82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa to the coast near 10N14W then resumes west of the eastern most tropical wave near 5N21W to 5N28W where the ITCZ begins and continues to east of the next tropical wave near 5N42W then resumes west of that wave near 6N48W to South America near 5N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60/75 nm of line from 8N44W to 7N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 225 nm north of the monsoon trough between 24W-27W, within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 22W-27W, and north of 4N to inland over southwest Africa between 1W-6W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough over the northwest Atlantic is supporting a stationary front that extends through the west Atlantic across the Florida panhandle. A remnant surface trough is over the northwest Gulf extending from 29N92W to 26N95W. An upper ridge anchored over northeast Yucatan extends over the southeast Gulf, across south Florida and into the west Atlantic giving most of the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A diurnal surface trough extends from 22N87W inland over the Yucatan peninsula to south Guatemala. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland and within 60 nm along the coast of the Yucatan between 89W-93W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms persist over the southeast Gulf from 22N-28N east of 88W to over Florida and Cuba. Weak pressure pattern will prevail across the basin through the Sunday when a high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper ridge anchored over northeast Yucatan covers the Caribbean west of 84W. An elongated upper low is centered in the central Caribbean near 17N79W and extends a trough axis north over Cuba and south to 10N80W with a surface trough extending from the Bahamas near 23N75W across east Cuba to west Jamaica near 18N78W. Isolated showers are possible north of 19N between 78W-84W and from 15N-20N between 72W-77W. Clear skies are across the east Caribbean east of 70W. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. The tropical wave will move across the west Caribbean tonight then move inland across Central America this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across portions of Haiti tonight. These showers will move west of the island later this morning giving way to clearer skies for Friday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N58W to 31N65w where it becomes stationary through a weak 1015 mb low near 29N73W then continues over the Florida Panhandle just south of the Georgia border. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front to a line from Cuba near 23N80W along 26N72W to beyond 32N57W. The upper ridge anchored over northeast Yucatan extends into the west Atlantic over south Florida and the Straits of Florida to 26N74W covering the area south of 26N east of 70W. A surface trough, previously the north portion of the Caribbean tropical wave, extends from the Bahamas near 23N75W across east Cuba to west Jamaica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from the Bahamas to Cuba between 76W- 80W. A remnant surface trough is in the east Atlantic extending through 32N26W along 24N34W to 21N48W. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high east of the above surface trough near 29N24W and west of the trough by a 1025 mb high near 29N37W. Fresh southwest winds ahead of the west Atlantic front will shift east into the central Atlantic overnight. A surface ridge will dominate the west Atlantic through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW