000 AXNT20 KNHC 100005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlc with axis extending from 03N-10N along 17W. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing. A moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb and upper divergence in the wave vicinity support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 02N-10N E of 26W. Tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlc with axis from 02N-11N along 44W, moving W at 20 kt within a 24 hour period. Patches of shallow moisture are in the wave environment, mainly W of the wave axis where scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 05N-08N to 54W. Tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending S of 15N along 78W, moving W at 15 kt within a 24 hour period. An elongated upper level low centered S of Jamaica along with abundant moisture in the region support scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 14N between 74W and 80W and numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 12N between 77W and 81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N18W to 06N28W where the ITCZ begins and then continues along 05N35W to 04N42W. The ITCZ then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N46W to 04N52W. For information about convection see the tropical waves section above. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface low pressure continues to dominate the basin. Aloft, a trough over the NW Atlc with base near 30N supports a weak stationary front across the northern Florida Peninsula to 29N83W to 28N90W where it starts to dissipate to 26N95W. Strong deep layer wind shear and dry air subsidence in the NW and North- central Gulf hinder convection in the vicinity of the front. Remnant moisture associated with a formal trough that dissipated near sunrise today and the continuation of divergent flow aloft support isolated showers in the SE region of the Gulf S of 27N E of 87W. In the Yucatan Peninsula, a surface trough extends near 89W and support numerous showers and tstms inland and within 60 nm off its coast. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations show gentle variable winds basin-wide. The front is forecast to gradually become diffuse through Friday night with high pressure building west from the SW North Atlc region into the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds are expected through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Diffluent flow generated by an elongated upper low centered S of Jamaica and a ridge centered NE of Hispaniola in the Atlc and abundant shallow moisture continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms across central and southern Cuba and adjacent southern waters. Scattered to isolated showers are in the Windward Passage being enhanced by a surface trough that extends N to Turks and Caicos Islands. Heavier showers are occuring in the SW Caribbean associated with a tropical wave. See tropical waves section for details. Fair weather is in the eastern Caribbean as surface ridging and dry air subsidence provide stability. The pres gradient between the surface ridge that extends from the central Atlc and lower pres associated with the wave support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin. See the NHC high seas forecast for more details. The tropical wave will move to the western basin Thu near sunrise. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean will continue through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Moisture associated with a surface trough in the Windward passage along with diffluence aloft between an upper ridge NE of Hispaniola and a low centered S of Jamaica support isolated showers mainly across the western half of the island. As the influence from the trough moves west and an upper level ridge builds over the region...drier and more stable conditions will develop and dominate during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the western North Atlc and supports a stationary front analyzed into the discussion area near 30N70W and extends W-SW to 28N81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring W of 70W, except in the southern Bahamas and NE adjancent waters. The central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 29N39W. One exception to the ridging is a dissipating stationary front extending S-SW from 30N27W to 22N40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS