000 AXNT20 KNHC 091646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N15W to 11N14W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing moving off the coast of western Africa that has been trackable the last few days on long-term IR satellite imagery. It is likely this wave will remain low-latitude the next several days as it moves west across the tropical Atlc. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 12W-21W. Tropical wave extends from 04N42W to 10N41W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with very subtle 700 mb troughing between 38W- 45W. The edge of a recent ASCAT pass around 09/1208 UTC suggests gentle to moderate cyclonic surface winds generally N of 07N. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 04N76W to 14N75W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 72W-81W and maximum 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis N of 11N. Energy has fractured north of the wave and is analyzed as a surface trough extending from 15N75W to NW Hispaniola near 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 75W-81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 09N17W to 07N26W to 06N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N42W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 23W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 47W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over SE Texas that supports a weak area of low pressure across the far western Gulf waters focused on a 1010 mb low centered off the coast of Corpus Christi near 27N96W. A stationary front extends eastward from the low to the Florida peninsula near 29N83W. Light to moderate southerly flow prevails south of the front with low-level moisture convergence and ample middle to upper level lifting dynamics in the vicinity of the front generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 26N W of 88W. Isolated showers and tstms are also occurring across much of the eastern Gulf mainly south of the front where middle to upper level diffluence is maximized between the shortwave trough and an upper level anticyclone centered over the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W. The front is forecast to gradually become diffuse through Friday night with high pressure building west from the SW North Atlc region into the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds are expected to prevail through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level anticyclone is centered over the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W that is providing much of the NW Caribbean with NE flow aloft. Overall this NE flow is maintaining fair skies this afternoon...however a few isolated showers and tstms are noted stretching from the Gulf of Honduras along the coast of Belize and Yucatan to western Cuba. Farther southeast...an upper level low is centered near 16N78W. The interaction between this upper level low and a tropical wave along 76W is generating scattered showers and tstms S of 13N between 74W-82W...and isolated showers and tstms within 120 nm either side of a surface trough...fractured northward energy from the tropical wave...analyzed from 15N75W to 20N73W. While the wave continues to move westward...the surface trough and upper level low will move W-NW the next couple of days. This will likely bring increased precipitation probability to Jamaica and Cuba through the weekend. East of the tropical wave...water vapor imagery indicates a drier air mass moving over the Lesser Antilles this afternoon promoting stable conditions and mostly clear skies for the islands and waters E of 70W. ...HISPANIOLA... Overall fair skies prevail currently across the island...however with peak daytime heating and instability...along with the northward extent of a tropical wave analyzed as a surface trough across far western Hispaniola...scattered showers and isolated tstms are possible through late evening. As the influence from the wave moves west and an upper level ridge builds over the region...drier and more stable conditions will prevail during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the western North Atlc that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N64W and extends W-SW to 30N72W. The front becomes stationary to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring within 45 nm N of the front and within 210 nm south of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 25N56W with axis extending westward to the Florida Straits near 24N80W. Finally...the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by the previously mentioned 1022 mb high centered near 25N56W...a 1023 mb high centered near 30N38W...and a 1024 mb high centered near 30N21W. One exception to the ridging is a weak 1018 mb low centered near 32N28W and a cold front extending S-SW from the low to 25N34W. The front becomes stationary to the southwest and gradually dissipates to 21N49W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN