000 AXNT20 KNHC 091134 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 40W from 3N-11N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends from the Turks and Caicos near 21N73W across Haiti to Colombia near 10N74W moving west- northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave remains an area of upper difflunce. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W along 16N18W 10N19W to 7N22W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N31W to east of the tropical wave near 6N38W then resumes west of the wave near 5N42W to South America near 2N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 5N-9N between 11W-16W including portions of Sierra Leone. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-9N between 16W-20W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-34W, and within 75 nm along the coast of South America between 51W-56W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N-9N between 35W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the far northeast CONUS into the northwest Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends across the west Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico as a stationary front from Jacksonville to north of Cedar Key near 30N83W just off the north Gulf coast to over southeast Louisiana near Vermilion Bay. Isolated showers are along the frontal boundary. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends over the southeast Gulf south of 27N east of 90W giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 25N83W through the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the northwest Caribbean. A second, a diurnal surface trough extends inland over the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the southeast Gulf south of 26N east of 89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the northwest Gulf from 27N-29N between 92W-96W. Weak pressure pattern will prevail across the basin through the weekend. The surface trough in the southeast Gulf will continue to enhance shower/thunderstorm activity through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba covers the Caribbean north of 16N west of 81W. A surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W to 19N86W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the coast of Belize. Scattered showers are north of 19N west of 83W to over Cuba and the northeast Yucatan peninsula. A weakening elongated upper low is centered in the central Caribbean near 16N77W and extends a trough axis north over east Cuba to 24N72W and south to 11N81W generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along the coast of colombia south of 11N with isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 10N to over Panama west of 80W. A second upper ridge is anchored over Puerto Rico covering the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 73W. The diffluent environment between these upper features is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 16N between 69W-75W including all of Hispaniola. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. The tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean this evening then move inland across Central America this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island this morning. The upper ridge to the east will shift west over the island this afternoon. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue through early Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends into the west Atlantic covering the area south of 28N east of 73W. The upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N72W to 31N80W then across Florida near Jacksonville and continue into the Gulf of Mexico. A remnant surface trough extends into the west Atlantic through 32N68W to across Florida near Cape Canaveral continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 23N80W along 26N74W to beyond 32N61W. A weakening elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a trough axis north across east Cuba to 24N72W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area then stationary front along 32N27W to a weak 1018 mb low near 30N31W then continues as a cold front to 24N36W then dissipates to 21N36W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm southeast of the cold front. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 29N41W. The west Atlantic cold front will merge with the surface trough late tonight over the northern waters of the west Atlantic. The surface ridge will shift east this weekend. 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