000 AXNT20 KNHC 090552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N35W to 3N38W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends from the Turks and Caicos near 21N71W across Haiti to the coast of Colombia near 12N73W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave remains an area of upper difflunce. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N13W to 7N20W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N28W to east of the tropical wave near 6N35W then resumes west of the wave near 5N40W along 6N49W to South America near 6N57W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 10N west of 10W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-34W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 45 nm of line from 7N14W to 5N18W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-33W, and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the far northeast CONUS into the northwest Atlantic extending a narrower upper trough across Texas and most of Mexico. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends over south Florida into the far southwest Atlantic is giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Colin through the west Atlantic across Florida between Melbourne and Fort Myers to 25N84W. A second surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 24N84W through the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the northwest Caribbean. A third, a diurnal surface trough extends from 22N89W to over the Yucatan peninsula to southwest Guatemala. A weak 1010 mb low is in the central Gulf near 25N91W. A weak stationary front is along the north Gulf coast from the Florida panhandle to central Louisiana. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the east Gulf east of 89W and over the northwest Gulf north of 27N between 91W-95W. Weak pressure pattern across the basin will prevail through the weekend. The surface trough over the southeast Gulf will lift northward through Friday then shift east of the area Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the the southwest Atlantic and covers the Caribbean west of 81W. A surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the Gulf of Honduras to the coast of Honduras near 16N88W. A cutoff elongated upper low is centered in the central Caribbean near 16N77W and extends a trough axis north through the Windward Passage to 26N70W and south to 11N80W generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 30/45 nm of 12N between 77W-80W. A second upper ridge is anchored over the Virgin Islands covering the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 72W. The diffluent environment between these upper features is generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms between 70W-75W including Hispaniola. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of Colombia through Saturday. The tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean by Thursday evening then move inland across Central America this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island tonight. The upper ridge to the east will shift west over the island Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue through early Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, south Florida, and the Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering the area south of 28N east of 75W. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Colin into the west Atlantic through 32N70W to across Florida near Melbourne continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 21N76W along 26N71W to beyond 32N62W. A cold front is northeast of the surface trough extending through 32N79W to across southeast Georgia near 31N81W. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a trough axis north through the Windward Passage to 26N70W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area then stationary front along 32N25W and 31N30W to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N32W then continues as a cold front along 25N35W to 21N42W. Isolated showers are within 45 nm southeast of the cold front. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high in the east Atlantic near 29N23W, a 1023 mb high near 29N43W, and a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 25N55W. The surface trough in the west Atlantic will sag southeastward through Thursday night as a cold front moves across the northern waters of the west Atlantic. A surface ridge will then prevail along 25N through Thursday night then shift east on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW