000 AXNT20 KNHC 090004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 804 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 02N35W to 11N34W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. In the northern wave environment Saharan dry air and dust as well as strong deep layer wind shear hinder convection. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the wave axis S of 7N. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N70W to 09N70W, moving west at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of moisture from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. This moisture along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over northern Haiti and western Dominican Republic. Similar convection is S of 13N between 68W and 75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 05N22W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 05N34W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N38W to 05N48W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface low pressure continues to dominate the basin. Aloft, a trough over the eastern CONUS with base near central Georgia supports a weak cold front across the Florida Panhandle becoming stationary near 30N86W to southern Louisiana. A surface trough, remnants of former post-tropical cyclone Colin extends across south Florida to 26N81W to 24N86W. Another surface trough extends from the NW Caribbean to the SE basin near 23N83W. Abundant moisture in the region along with diffluent flow being generated by the upper trough and a ridge centered near 20N85W support scattered showers S of 27N E of 86W, including the Yucatan channel and the straits of Florida. These troughs are expected to move east-northeast the next two days and are likely to generate heavy rains over the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and SE Gulf waters. A surface trough is inland the Yucatan Peninsula and supports heavy showers within 90 nm off the northern peninsula. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations show a 101 mb low close to the central Gulf near 25N91W, which is forecast to dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, gentle variable winds are basin-wide. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level ridge continues anchored over the NW Caribbean near 20N85W collocated over a surface trough that extends from 23N83W to the western Gulf of Honduras. A divergent environment aloft generated by the ridge and an upper trough N of the area support scattered to isolated showers W of 81W, including the Yucatan Channel, western and central Cuba. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean bringing showers to that region. See the tropical waves section for details. Behind the wave axis, moderate to fresh trades dominate while ahead of the wave gentle E to SE flow is present. The trough in the west Caribbean will drift north of the area by Thu night, however convection will continue in the NW basin during that time. The tropical wave will move to the western basin Thu near sunrise. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop in the south-central Caribbean later tonight and will continue through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N70W to 09N70W. Moisture associated with the wave along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over northern Haiti and western Dominican Republic. Showers are forecast to continue through Thu morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 30N73W to 27N80W and along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms S of 29N W of 75W. Similar convection is between Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola. To the east, a pair of 1022 mb surface highs are centered near 25N55W and 29N48W. A weak 1016 mb surface low is over the eastern portion of the basin near 29N32W with a cold front extending from the low to 21N42W. Isolated convection is likely in the vicinity of these features. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface trough in the west Atlantic to merge with a cold front and then move east with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS