000 AXNT20 KNHC 081751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 10N32W to 02N33W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a moisture surge is seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern portion of the wave mostly enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ south of 06N between 30W-35W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 19N69W to 10N70W. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is becoming elongated due to an upper-level low prevailing to the east of it. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and their adjacent waters between 65W-75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N21W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N31W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N35W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90/120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-40W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-35W, and within 120/150 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of both boundaries between 16W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf waters from the central and east CONUS. A surface trough is across the eastern portion of the basin extending from 26N88W to 27N82W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails south of this trough supporting scattered moderate convection east of 85W. Another surface trough extends across the western Caribbean enhancing convection over the Yucatan channel and Florida Straits/Keys. Gentle to moderate northerly flow prevails across the northern waters while light to gentle southerly winds dominate the southern half of the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a cold front to approach the northeastern Gulf waters with convection. Active weather will continue across the eastern Gulf as the surface troughs in the Caribbean and Gulf move north. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the far west Caribbean from 22N84W to 19N85W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed along and in the vicinity of the trough between 83W-87W. Locally heavy rains have occurred over western Cuba during the past 24 hours, ranging between 3 to 4 in (75 to 100 mm) mainly in Pinal del Rio. To the east...a tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the trough in the west Caribbean to drift north with convection. The tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing convection across Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... The northern portion of a tropical wave is entering Dominican Republic at this time. With this, cloudiness and scattered moderate convection is expected during the next 24 hours across the island as the wave moves west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the eastern Gulf waters, across the Florida peninsula and into the west Atlantic from 28N81W to 30N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail along the trough affecting the waters north of 25N and west of 70W. To the east, a pair of 1022 mb surface highs are centered near 25N56W and 29N48W. A weak 1016 mb surface low was analyzed over the eastern portion of the basin near 29N33W with a cold front extending from the low to 22N43W. Isolated convection is observed in the vicinity of these features. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface trough in the west Atlantic to merge with a cold front and then move east with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA