000 AXNT20 KNHC 081111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 32W from 3N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 68W/69W from 7N-19N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is becoming elongated due to upper level features. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N-22N between 64W-67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 7N16W to 6N22W where the ITCZ begins and continues to east of the tropical wave near 5N30W then resumes west of the wave near 5N35W along 6N48W to South America near 7N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-10N between 13W-17W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90/120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-40W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W- 35W, and within 120/150 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-43W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120/150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W-21W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 43W-49W, and south of 9N to the coast of South America between 56W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the northeast CONUS into the northwest Atlantic extending a narrower upper trough across Texas and most of Mexico. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends over the Straits of Florida into the far southwest Atlantic is giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Colin through the west Atlantic across Florida between Cape Canaveral and south Tampa Bay along 27N85W to 24N91W. A second surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 24N84W through the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the northern surface trough east of 90w including west Cuba, the Yucatan and the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 25N-28N west of 90W to the coast of Texas. Isolated showers are possible from 24N-29N between 86W-90W. Weak pressure pattern across the basin will prevail through the weekend. The surface trough over the southeast Gulf will lift northward through Friday then shift east of the area Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the the southwest Atlantic and covers the Caribbean west of 80W. A surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the Gulf of Honduras to the coast of Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of a line from Cuba near 22N80W to Honduras near 15N84W. A cutoff elongated upper low is centered south of Haiti near 16N75W extending a trough axis north to 28N67W and south to Panama near 9N79W. A second upper ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 70W. The diffluent environment between these upper features is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms between 63W-68W. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of Colombia through Saturday. The tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean by Thursday evening then move inland across Central America this weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies are cleared across most the island this morning with the exception of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms over eastern Dominican Republic. The cutoff upper low over Haiti will shift west of the island through by early Thursday. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain across the eastern Dominican Republic through this afternoon then spread across the remainder of the island through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering the area south of 28N east of 76W. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Colin into the west Atlantic through 32N70W to across Florida near Cape Canaveral continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 21N77W to Bermuda. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a trough axis north across Haiti to 28N67W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area then stationary front along 32N26W and 31N31W to a weak 1015 mb low near 29N34W then continues as a cold front along 26N36W to 24N41W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm southeast of the cold front and within 90 nm north of the stationary front. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high in the east Atlantic near 32N18W and a 1022 mb high the central Atlantic near 26N57W. The surface trough in the west Atlantic will sag southeastward through Thursday night as a cold front moves across the northern waters of the west Atlantic. A surface ridge will then prevail along 25N through Thursday night then shift east on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW