000 AXNT20 KNHC 080005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post tropical cyclone Colin is centered near 36.5N 72.2W, or about 178 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of 07/21 UTC. Colin is moving northeast at about 35 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with higher gusts near 60 kt. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis along 31W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines. Dry air and dust in the northern wave environment along with strong deep layer wind shear suppress the development of convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending along 67W, moving west at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of moisture is depicted on both the SSMI Total Precipitable Water and the CIRA Layer Precipitable water imagery. Even that there is strong deep layer shear in this region of the Caribbean, a diffluent environment in the middle to upper levels support scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms E of 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ begins near 07N17W and continue to east of a tropical wave near 05N28W. The ITCZ resumes near 05N32W and then continues to 05N41W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface low pressure continues to dominate the basin after the passage of current post-tropical cyclone Colin located off the NE coast of North Carolina. This low pressure is analyzed as a surface trough that extends across central Florida to 27N83W SW to 25N92W, which support isolated showers and thunderstorms inland. A second surface trough remains in the SE basin from 25N82W to the tip of western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras in the Caribbean. Moisture convergence along with a divergent environment aloft generated by a high anchored near 20N85W support scattered heavy showers S of 26N E of 88W, including the Yucatan Channel and the straits of Florida. Scatterometer data depicts variable gentle winds basin-wide. No significant changes are expected the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level ridge is anchored over the NW Caribbean near 20N85W collocated with a surface trough that extends from 25N82W to the tip of western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Moisture convergence along with the divergent environment aloft generated by the ridge support scattered to numerous heavy showers N of 17N W of 81W, including the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Heavier showers and thunderstorms are inland over SE Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, portions of Guatemala and Honduras. Scattered showers are in the eastern basin E of 70W associated due in part to a tropical wave with axis along 67W. See waves section above for details. Isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms are over NW Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the basin E of 80W. Moderate SE flow is in the NW Caribbean E of the surface trough. The tropical wave is forecast to be in the central basin Wed near sunrise. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop in the south-central Caribbean Thu. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level elongated low is over the central Caribbean, which supports lifting of abundant moist air in the region, thus resulting in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms over NW portions of the Island tonight. A tropical wave currently along 67W will move to the central Caribbean by sunrise on Wed, thus assisting the continuation of showers in the island, especially during afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure and lingering moisture associated with current post- tropical cyclone Colin off the NE coast of North Carolina support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms W of 73W. In the central Atlc, a broad trough aloft continues to support a frontal system analyzed as stationary from 30N31W to a 1015 mb low near 28N37W. From the low, a cold front extends to 25N43W to 26N50W. Isolated showers are possible in the vicinity of this system. Otherwise, the remainder basin is being dominated by ridging anchored mainly by a 1021 mb high near 24N57W. For Colin and tropical waves information see sections above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS