000 AXNT20 KNHC 071155 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 07/0900 UTC or about 95 nm northeast of Jacksonville, Florida and about 80 nm south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina moving northeast at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate/strong convection is from 29N-32.5N between 76W-80W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm of line from 26N85W across central Florida to 29N80W and over the west Atlantic north of 26N west of 76W to the coast from Florida to South Carolina. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 27W/28W from 5N-11N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 64W from 9N-17N moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is moving beneath an upper trough masking the inverted trough on satellite imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 1N15W along 7N19W to east of the tropical wave near 6N25W. The ITCZ begins west of wave near 6N30W and continues along 6N45W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 75/90 nm of line from 4N18W to the coast of Africa near 7N13W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-45W, and from 4N-10N between 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper trough covers the central and northeast CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas and most of Mexico. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N between 90W-93W to inland over Louisiana. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering most of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms, remnants of T.S. Colin, are southeast of a line from Fort Myers Florida to the Yucatan near 21N88W including west Cuba and South Florida. Winds and seas will decrease today across the eastern Gulf as T.S. Colin accelerates northeast. A weak frontal boundary will reach the north Gulf coast Wednesday night then dissipate along 28N through Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the the west Atlantic and covering the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean west of 75W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of Cuba near 22N80W to Honduras near 16N86W. A cutoff elongated upper low is centered south of the Dominican Republic near 16N70W extending a trough axis north to 25N63W and south to Colombia near 11N72W. A second upper ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 64W. The diffluent environment between these upper features is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of line from the northern Leeward Islands near 18N62W to Venezuela near 10N66W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Wednesday night through the end of the week. The tropical wave will be in the central Caribbean by Wednesday and into the western Caribbean by Thursday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies are cleared across the island this morning. However, isolated showers/thunderstorms are offshore to the north and south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The cutoff upper low over the Mona Passage will shift west across the island through early Wednesday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern this morning is T.S. Colin that is off the Georgia coast. See special features above. The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends through the Straits of Florida into the west Atlantic covering most of the west Atlantic. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a trough axis north through the Mona Passage to 25N63W. A remnant surface trough is in the east-central Atlantic extending from 28N43W to 27N57W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the area near 32N32W and extends to 30N42W. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high in the east Atlantic near 25N27W and a 1021 mb high the central Atlantic near 25N59W. T.S. Colin will continue to accelerate northeast out of the area today. Strong southwest to west winds and large seas will persist across the northern waters of the west Atlantic today through Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW