000 AXNT20 KNHC 070553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 076 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 30.2N 82.6W at 07/0600 UTC or about 70 nm east-northeast of Cedar Key , Florida and about 70 nm west-southwest of Jacksonville, Florida moving northeast at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate/strong convection is from 28N-32N between 78W-83W including northeast Florida and east Georgia. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the east Gulf of Mexico east of 84W and the west Atlantic west of 77W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 27W from 4N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 64W from 9N-18N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is moving beneath an upper trough masking the inverted trough on satellite imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 9N13W along 8N18W to east of the tropical wave near 6N24W. The ITCZ begins west of wave near 7N29W and continues along 6N33W to near 7N49W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is within 60/75 nm of line from 5N16W to the coast of Africa near 7N11W. Clusters of scattered moderate/ isolated strong convection are within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-49W and within 120/150 nm south of the ITCZ between 46W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin moving across northeast Florida. See special features above. A broad upper trough covers the central and northeast CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas and most of Mexico. The broad upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters the northwest Gulf at 07/0300 UTC near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to 28N92W then dissipates to 24N95W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N west of 91W to inland over Louisiana and Texas. An upper ridge anchored in the northwest Caribbean covers the east Gulf of Mexico. Colin will has inland and is accelerating northeast. Majority of the high winds and seas will occur across the eastern semicircle of the storm. Winds will quickly diminish and seas will subside gradually across the east Gulf late tonight through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Passage near 22N86W to over the Yucatan peninsula along 19N87W to over northern Guatemala. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland over the Yucatan with scattered showers in the Caribbean waters west of 86W. An upper ridge is anchored over the northwestern Caribbean near 21N85W extending across west Cuba into the the west Atlantic and covering the east Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of line from Honduras near 16N85W to across Cuba near 22N82W. A cut off elongated upper low is centered over the Mona Passage covering the east Caribbean between 63W-74W. A second upper ridge is anchored in the Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 63W. The diffluent environment between these upper features is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms southwest of line from Dominica to the ABC Islands. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through Tuesday night then again Wednesday night. The tropical wave will be in the central Caribbean by Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies are cleared across the island tonight. The cutoff upper low over the Mona Passage will shift west across the island through early Wednesday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin that is crossing northeast Florida and will emerge into the far west Atlantic Tuesday morning. The convection has already moved into the area off the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. See special features above. The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends across Cuba into the west Atlantic covering most of the west Atlantic. A cut off elongated upper low is centered over the Mona Passage and covers a small portion of the west Atlantic south of 25N between 63W-70W. A remnant surface trough is in the far east Atlantic extending from 31N18W to 27N26W. A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1021 mb highs in the east Atlantic near 24N31W and the central Atlantic near 24N56W. T.S. Colin will continue across northeast Florida/southeast Georgia overnight emerging into the west Atlantic and be off the coast of South Carolina later Tuesday morning then northeast of the area. Strong to near gale force southwest winds will linger across the northern waters of the west Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday night. Seas will gradually subside in response through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW