000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 28.8N 85.5W at 06/2100 UTC or about 59 nm south-southwest of Apalachicola. The system is moving north-northeast at 20 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevails south-southeast of the storm's center affecting the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N E of 88W. Similar convection is within 60 nm off the Florida Big Bend, in the Yucatan channel and the straits of Florida. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis extending along 26W, moving west at about 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust is in the wave environment, which in part hinder the convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 63W moving west about 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Moderate moisture in the wave environment along with diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers E of 67W, including the Lesser Antilles. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N23W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 07N27W to 07N40W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-06N E of 15W and from 04N-09N between 37W- 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin continues to be T.S. Colin currently centered over the NE Gulf. Please refer to the special features section above for details. A middle to upper-level trough over the central US extending SW across northern and central Mexico supports a stationary front from southern Louisiana near 29N91W to 27N94W to a 1008 mb low near 24N94W. For information about winds and seas associated with T.S. Colin please see the latest NHC high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Colin will move northeast across the Florida peninsula tonight then into the west Atlantic waters Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves away. Showers will prevail in the NE basin as the stationary front transitions into a cold front to move across northern Florida Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with T.S. Colin currently in the NE Gulf of Mexico continue to affect the NW Caribbean W of 81W. Similar convective activity is happening in the eastern basin associated with a tropical wave. See the tropical waves section for details. Showers in these regions are expected to continue the next two days. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the whole basin. The tropical wave will move to the central basin near sunrise Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers continue to be observed mainly across the northern Island. This activity is being supported by abundant moisture in the region and lifting of this air by a middle and upper level low centered near the Dominican Republic. Showers will cease at sunrise Tuesday but will resume in the afternoon and night hours as the upper low moves slowly to the west before weakening into a trough. A tropical wave currently in the E Caribbean will move to the central basin Wed morning, likely enhancing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. Colin currently centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico continue to support scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 22N W of 77W. To the east, a broad area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered near 24N57W. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Expect during the next 24 hours for Colin to continue moving northeast across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula and entering the western Atlantic with convection. Please see the section above for more details about this system. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS