000 AXNT20 KNHC 061113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 25.2N 87.4W at 06/0900 UTC or about 315 nm west-southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 300 nm south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida moving north- northeast at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is within a 45 nm radius of 24N85W. Scattered to numerous moderate/isolated strong to scattered strong convection covers the remainder of the northwest Caribbean west of a line from Honduras near 16N87W to across Cuba near 22N83W and in the Gulf of Mexico south of 27N between 81W-86W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W/24W from 7N-11N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 59W/60W from 8N-15N moving west-northwest near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly observed on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 8N-15N between 57W and the Lesser Antilles. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W along 8N16W to 7N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N37W 8N52W into South America near 8N60W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is convection is from the ITCZ to 11N between 47W-55W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 16W-19W and within 45 nm either side of the ITCZ between 35W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern this morning is T.S. Colin in the east Gulf. See special features above. A broad upper trough covers the central CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas and most of Mexico with an upper low near 25N101W. The broad upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters the northwest Gulf near Galveston, Texas along the Texas coast to 25N97W. A weak surface trough extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N92W to 27N94W. Isolated showers are north of 26N west of 91W. An upper ridge anchored in the northwest Caribbean covers the east Gulf of Mexico and is providing diffluent environment to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over the remainder of the Gulf east of 90W. Colin will move northeast across the northeast Gulf through today and this evening crossing northeast Florida tonight. Winds and seas will quickly diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary concern this morning is the showers/thunderstorms associated with T.S. Colin over the far west Caribbean. An upper ridge is anchored over the northwestern Caribbean near 20N85W extending across west Cuba and the south Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic and covering the east Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough over the west-central Atlantic extends over the east Caribbean east of 72W generating isolated showers over Puerto Rico. The easterly trade winds coupled with the approaching tropical wave are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the far southeast Caribbean south of 15N east of 66W to over the Windward Islands. Strong southerly winds in the northwest Caribbean west of 83W associated with T.S. Colin will gradually diminish today. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through tonight. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies have cleared across most the island with the exception of some Isolated showers over far southwest Haiti. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could develop during the evening hours today and Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends across Cuba and the Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic covering the area west of 72W. An upper trough extends from 25N63W across the Greater Antilles to over the east Caribbean with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 19N-23N between 63W-68W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N18W to 29N25W then dissipates to 28N30W. A weakening surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high in the east-central Atlantic near 24N43W. T.S. Colin will cross over northeast Florida this tonight emerging into the west Atlantic early Tuesday then be off the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish starting Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW