000 AXNT20 KNHC 060552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 24.2N 87.6W at 06/0600 UTC or about 355 nm southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 355 nm south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 18N-22N between 86W-88W including northeast Yucatan peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the northwest Caribbean west of a line from Honduras near 16N86W to across Cuba near 23N83W and in the Gulf of Mexico south of 27N between 81W-86W. Please see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 21W/22W from 6N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 57W/58W from 8N-14N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 10N-15N between 52W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 9N13W to 7N17W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N24W 7N40W 8N52W into South America near 7N58W. Scattered moderate/strong convection is within 60 nm of line from 6N12W to 8N18W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from the ITCZ to 10N between 46W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin in the south-central Gulf. See special features above. A broad upper trough covers the central CONUS extending a narrow upper trough across east Texas and most of Mexico with an upper low near 25N101W. The broad upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters the northwest Gulf over Texas near 29N95W to 25N97W. Scattered showers are west of the front to the coast of Texas. A weak surface trough extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N92W to 26N94W with isolated showers within 60 nm east of the trough. An upper ridge anchored in the northwest Caribbean covers the east Gulf of Mexico and is providing diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the remainder of the Gulf east of 90W. Colin will will move north to northeast across the Gulf through Monday evening crossing northeast Florida Monday night. Winds and seas will quickly diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary concern tonight is the strong convection associated with T.S. Colin over the far west Caribbean. An upper ridge is anchored over the northwestern Caribbean near 21N84W extending across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the east Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. An upper trough over the west- central Atlantic extends over the east Caribbean east of 70W generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of 15N between 64W-72W including Puerto Rico and Haiti. The easterly trade winds are generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the far southeast Caribbean south of 14N east of 64W to over the Windward Islands. Strong south to southeast winds over the far northwest Caribbean west of 82W will gradually diminish Monday and Monday night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across portions of Haiti tonight due to the upper trough that extends from the west-central Atlantic across the east Caribbean. These showers will continue through early Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms could still develop during the evening hours Monday and Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the west Atlantic west of 70W. An upper trough extends through 32N55W along 27N63W across the Greater Antilles to over the east Caribbean with isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 22N between 65W-68W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N20W to 28N34W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high in the east-central Atlantic near 26N41W and a extending ridge axis west to 28N76W. T.S. Colin will cross over northeast Florida Monday evening then be north of the discussion area later Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish starting Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW