000 AXNT20 KNHC 052352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 752 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 23.4N 87.8W at 06/0000 UTC or about 400 nm SW of Tampa Florida and about 410 nm SSW of Apalachicola Florida moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 18N-29N between 81W-88W. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N20W to 12N18W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 16W and 22W. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave axis at this time. Tropical wave extends from 06N56W to 14N55W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 53W-62W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 18N34W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N-16N between 52W-62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 06N37W to 08N59W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 07N-12N between 10W-16W. Scattered moderate is from 06N-12N between 45W- 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary focus for the Gulf is newly updated Tropical Storm Colin tracking from the south-central portion of the basin N-NE to the Florida Big Bend region of the NE Gulf by Monday afternoon/ evening. Colin is located NW of an upper level anticyclone centered over the the NW Caribbean Sea supporting scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms across much of the eastern Gulf...including portions of the Florida peninsula this evening. To the west of Colin...water vapor imagery indicates an upper level low centered over northern Mexico that is generating south- southwesterly flow aloft and marginal wind shear to inhibit any significant deep convection across the western Gulf. However...the upper level low along with a negatively-tilted middle to upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes region is supporting a cold front extending across the middle and lower Mississippi River valley to Galveston Bay near 30N95W to 27N97W and inland across southern Texas and far northern Mexico. A weak pre-frontal 1009 mb low is centered near 27N95W with the associated surface trough extending S from the low to 24N96W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally W of 88W. The track of Colin towards the NE Gulf will continue to generate increased winds and building seas across the eastern Gulf through Monday night with heavy rainfall and possible flooding across central and northern Florida and southern Georgia through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge is anchored over the NW Caribbean near 20N83W and influences a large area of the basin W of 75W with a favorable upper level diffluent environment. This environment along with the presence of Tropical Storm Colin centered in the south-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous showers and strong tstms N of 12N W of 81W this evening... including western Cuba and portions of Central America. In addition...periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding are possible across these areas through Monday as Colin tracks to the N-NE. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W with generally fair skies this evening. One exception is isolated showers and tstms across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the adjacent coastal waters N of 16N between 64W-72W due to a middle to upper level low centered near 20N66W. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island due to peak daytime heating and instability along with an upper level low centered near 20N66W. This overall pattern is expected to persist overnight into Monday with increased probability of afternoon/evening scattered showers and tstms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and W-NW flow aloft W of 70W. The upper level ridge axis lies along 81W...with scattered showers and tstms occurring W of 77W...including much of the Florida peninsula this evening. The remainder of the region is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by 1018 mb high centered near 29N70W. Farther southeast...a middle to upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N65W that is generating isolated showers and tstms from 18N-23N between 63W-68W. Otherwise...the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high pressure area anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N41W. The only exception to the ridging is a weakening cold front draped within the northeast periphery of the ridge from 32N21W to 28N36W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN