000 AXNT20 KNHC 051752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The broad area of low pressure previously discussed as a special feature is now Tropical Depression Three as of 1500 UTC. The low is centered near 21.9N/88.1W, moving north at 7 kt. Its estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. An area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevails east of the low's center affecting the southeast Gulf of Mexico and west Caribbean from 17N-25N between 80W-87W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCPAT3/WTNT33 and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 for more details. This feature will support gale force winds across the SE Gulf waters south of 27N and east of 87W starting tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 12N18W to 06N18W. This wave has been moving west at about 10 to 15 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a subtle 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak moisture surge as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 13N53W to the coast of South America near 06N55W moving west at about 15-20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a decent surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly depicted on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the wave merging to the ITCZ convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 08N21W to 05N37W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 39W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb surface low continues over the northwest Gulf centered near 28N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to the south near 24N93W while another trough extends northeast from the low to 30N92W. Isolated convection is related to these features. The central and east Gulf waters are influenced by the now Tropical Depression Three which is centered near 21.9N/88.1W. Please refer to the special features section for more details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the western half of the basin while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 90W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low over the northwest Gulf to drift south. A frontal boundary will approach the northern portion of the basin with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... The convection related to Tropical Depression Three prevails across the western Caribbean affecting the waters west of 80W and portions of eastern Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Nicaragua. To the east, the surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic, extends southwest across the central and east Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with strongest winds between 70W-80W. These winds are transporting low-level moisture which is generating isolated convection across the whole area. Expect during the next 24 hours for the Tropical Depression Three to move north hence, the convection over the western portion of the basin will be reduced. Surface ridging will continue across the central and east Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... A tilted upper-level trough continues north of the island. With this, a diffluent flow aloft supports isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Similar activity is expected during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An tilted upper-level trough extending between 60W-70W is supporting isolated convection south of 24N between 63W-68W. To the east...surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 26N41W. To the north of the surface high, a cold front extends from 28N37W to 32N22W with isolated convection. Two tropical waves were analyzed along 10N. Please refer to the section above for details. During the next 24 hours, the now Tropical Depression Three will move across the Florida Peninsula approaching the west Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for more information. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA