000 AXNT20 KNHC 051146 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad area of low pressure is over the northeast Yucatan peninsula with a 1005 mb low centered near 19N88W. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual development of this low as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. This system has a high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next few days. Currently, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel from 18N-22N between 84W-87W with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms dotting the area from 16N-23N between 80W-88W including portions of Cuba and the Yucatan. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 17W from 6N-11N moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N52W to the coast of South America near 5N54W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm either side of the wave south of 9N to the coast of South America. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa to the coast near 14N17W. The ITCZ begins near 9N18W and continues along 6N31W 5N43W into South America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are from 4N-10N between 36W- 49W. The remainder of the activity is associated with the Tropical Wave in the west Tropical Atlantic. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper low is centered over south Texas near 27N99W with a 1008 mb surface low along the coast of Texas near 29N95W. A surface trough extends from this low along 29N93W 26N92W to 20N94W with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of line from 23N93W to inland over the north Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N between 91W-97W. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the the remainder of the east Gulf. The activity south of 23N east of 88W is associated with the broad low pressure in the special features section above. The low over the Yucatan will move north today then northeast, possibly as a tropical cyclone, across the east Gulf tonight and Monday then across northern Florida Monday evening as it continues to deepen. Gale force winds are expected east of 85W Sunday night through Monday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near 19N84W extending across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the far east Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. This is enhancing the activity in the special features associated with the low over the Yucatan. An upper trough over the west-central Atlantic extends to the north coast of the Dominican Republic generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers over the far southeast Caribbean south of 15N east of 65W to over the Windward Islands. The surface low over the Yucatan will move north today then northeast, possibly as a tropical cyclone, into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Strong south to southeast winds are expected south of west Cuba today as the low over the Yucatan deepens and moves north. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers persist across the island this morning. The upper trough that extends from the west-central Atlantic to the north coast of the Dominican Republic will shift south forming an upper low of the Mona passage tonight and will continue to generate scattered showers through Monday night. Afternoon thunderstorms could develop during the evening hours today and Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis across central Cuba and then the Florida peninsula covering the west Atlantic west of 70W. An upper trough extends through 32N57W along 26N67W to the north coast of the Dominican Republic with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 24N to over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands between 64W- 67W. A surface trough is just to the west extending from 25N71W across the Turks and Caicos to the coast of northwest Haiti near 20N73W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N26W to 28N38W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1021 mb high in the east-central Atlantic near 26N42W and a extending ridge axis west-northwest to 30N75W. The ridge over the west Atlantic will retreat eastward through Monday. The low over the Yucatan is expected to move north today then northeast across the east Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a tropical cyclone, tonight and Monday. The low will move off the north Florida coast Monday evening then north of the area Tuesday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW