000 AXNT20 KNHC 050548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie has been downgraded to a Post- Tropical Cyclone and is centered near 34.7N 63.6W at 05/0300 UTC or about 156 nm north-northeast of Bermuda moving east-southeast at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Bonnie is void of any deep convection. This is the last forecast/advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. Broad area of low pressure is in the northwestern Caribbean and is associated with a 1005 mb low centered along the coast of Yucatan near 18.5N87.5W. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual development of this low as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night. This system has a high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next few days. Currently, clusters of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel from 14N-23N between 78W-88W. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 5N15W to inland over southwest Africa near 11N13W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N50W to the coast of South America near 5N53W moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the area from 5N- 13N between 47W-58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is non-existent in the Tropical Atlantic tonight. The ITCZ begins near 8N15W and continues along 8N24W 6N32W 4N44W into South America near 4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are from the ITCZ to 9N between 28W-47W. The remainder of the activity is associated with the Tropical Wave in the west Tropical Atlantic. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper low is centered over south Texas near 28N99W with a 1007 mb surface low along the coast of Texas near 29N95W. A surface trough extends from this low along 28N92w to 21N94W with scattered to numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms north of 25N west of 87W to the surface trough and scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-25N between 91W-97W. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the southeast Gulf south of 25N east of 91W including the Straits of Florida and the Florida Keys. The low along the coast of the Yucatan will move inland over the Yucatan tonight and Sunday then into the south-central Gulf Sunday night. The low will then track northeast across the east-central Gulf early Monday, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and then across northern Florida Monday evening as it deepens. Gale force winds are possible over portions of the Gulf east of 85W Sunday night through Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near 16N82W and extends across Cuba to over the Florida peninsula covering the far east Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. This is enhancing the activity in the special features associated with the low along the coast of Yucatan. The easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers over the far southeast Caribbean south of 15N east of 65W to over the Windward Islands. The surface low will move over the Yucatan tonight and Sunday then into the south-central Gulf Sunday night. Strong southeast winds are expected east of the low in the northwest Caribbean tonight through Sunday night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through the mid week. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening are diminishing leaving isolated showers across the island tonight. This scenario of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis across central Cuba and then the Florida peninsula covering the west Atlantic west of 76W. An upper trough extends through 32N59W to 22N71W with a surface trough extending from 25N70W across the Turks and Caicos to the coast of northwest Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of line from 25N66W to 22N68W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N28W to 29N40W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a 1022 mb high in the east Atlantic near 28N25W, a 1023 mb high in the central Atlantic near 27N45W, and a ridge axis extending west to 28N78W. The ridge over the west Atlantic will retreat eastward through Monday. The low along the coast of the Yucatan is expected to move across the east Gulf of Mexico Sunday night through Monday then offshore of northeast Florida late Monday night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. The low will track northeast to north of the area Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW