000 AXNT20 KNHC 041753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat JUN 04 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.6N 66.4W at 04/1500 UTC or about 212 NM NNW of Bermuda, moving east at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 80 NM of center over the eastern semicircle. Bonnie will continue weakening over the next 48 hours. See the latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. An area of widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean is becoming organized as a tropical wave moves through the area. A low pressure system is expected to form in association with this disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula or the adjacent waters and move northward during the next 24-48 hours. The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Due to this, the system has a high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N45W to 06N48W. This wave is moving west at about 15 to 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and it is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the wave and the ITCZ from 06N-12N between 43W-49W. A tropical wave extends across western Colombia and into the EPAC with axis from 10N77W to 04N78W. This wave has moved west at around 15 to 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The position was based on a broad 700 mb trough depicted by the GFS model. No associated deep convection is observed. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the tropical Atlantic near 16N16W to 10N21W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 06N36W into the South America coast near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the ITCZ and a tropical wave from 04N-09N between 32W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered low is centered over southern Texas, with a 1009 mb surface low near 28N97W. A squall line precedes the surface low extending from 27N99W to 30N94W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the NW Gulf waters mainly north of 25N and west of 92W. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft supports isolated moderate convection north of 26N between 87W- 89W. Surface ridging dominates the far east Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts a southeasterly flow across the western half of the basin while a southwesterly flow prevails east of 87W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low across the NW Gulf to move south with convection. Another low pressure will develop over the southwest Caribbean and move north affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters within the next 48 hours. This feature has a high chance for tropical development during that time also. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave extends across the west Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. This feature combined with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting scattered moderate convection over the western portion of the basin mainly west of 77W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin with isolated quick moving showers transported by the moderate to fresh trades. Expect during the next 24 hours for a surface low to develop over the west Caribbean in the vicinity of the tropical wave. This feature has a high chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed north of the island as a surface trough prevails over the western Atlantic. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected today through early next week across the area due to daytime heating and orographic lifting. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N74W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 22N71W to 29N67W. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the trough between 64W-70W supported by diffluent flow aloft. A tropical wave is moving west across the central Atlantic. Please see the section above for details. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 high near 28N47W and a 1021 mb high near 29N23W. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA