000 AXNT20 KNHC 041157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat JUN 04 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 68.2W at 04/0900 UTC or about 360 nm east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and about 273 nm northwest of Bermuda moving east at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center over the northeast quadrant. Bonnie is expected to weaken soon. See latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Broad area of showers and thunderstorms is in the northwestern Caribbean and is associated with the tropical wave that extends from 18N85W across northwest Honduras, central Nicaragua, and western Costa Rica to 9N85W. A low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by tomorrow then deepen as it moves northward. Gale force winds are possible in the Gulf of Mexico east of 85W Sunday night. This system has a high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. Currently, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the Caribbean from 11N-20N between 77W-86W. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave inland over Africa extends along 8W from 4N-10N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W from 5N-14N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Any convection is associated with the ITCZ and not the wave itself. Tropical wave inland over western Colombia, South America extends from 11N75W to 2N77W moving west 15 to 20 kt. Wave has been tracked over the last couple of days on satellite imagery as an inverted trough across the South America and the location is based on persistent westerly motion. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the Tropical Atlantic near 17N16W along 13N19W to 9N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N33W to east of the tropical wave near 6N43W then resumes west of the wave near 6N47W into South America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are within 120 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 7N west of 10W, within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-40W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-38W, within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-49W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered low is centered over Texas with a 1009 mb surface low near 29N97W. This large upper low covers the Gulf west of 87W. A narrow upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the remainder of the Gulf. A surface trough extends offshore from 29N95W to across south Texas near 27N97W. Numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms are west of the trough to inland over Texas with scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm southeast of the trough west of 95W to the coast of Texas. The diffluent environment between the upper features is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 23N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 85W-94W. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula. Lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms are over the southwest Gulf from 20N-22N between 94W-96W. A low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters tonight then deepen as it moves across the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday with gale force winds possible east of 85W Sunday night and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near 12N75W and extends into the west Atlantic covering the far east Gulf of Mexico. This is creating a diffluent environment over the north-central Caribbean generating the activity described in the special features section above. The easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers/thunderstorms over the east Caribbean east of 67W to over the Lesser Antilles. A low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters tonight then deepen as it moves across the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Strong southeast winds are expected east of the low in the northwest Caribbean tonight as the system develops. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds are across the south-central Caribbean along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela through the weekend into next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across the island this morning with isolated showers remaining off the north shore. This scenario of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis across east Cuba and then the Florida peninsula to the North Carolina coast. An upper trough covers the remainder of the west Atlantic north of 26N between 66W-77W. These upper features are generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 19N-26N between 64W-72W and north of 26N between 62W-67W with isolated showers between the Bahamas and Cuba from 72W-80W. A weak surface trough extends from 27N74W across the southern Bahamas to near 22N75W. A large upper low covers the Atlantic north of 30N and extends a broad upper trough into the central Atlantic near 30N36W along 20N48W to the Lesser Antilles near 12N62W. The broad upper trough is supporting a cold front just north of the discussion area. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula with a 1020 mb high in the east Atlantic near 30N24W, a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 28N49W, and a weak 1019 mb high in the west Atlantic near 30N72W. This broad surface ridge will retreat eastward as the expected low pressure moves across the east Gulf of Mexico. This low will move off northeast Florida into the west Atlantic Monday night and may induce gale force winds over the northwest waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW