000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0205 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 69.6W at 04/0300 UTC or about 291 nm east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and about 321 nm northwest of Bermuda moving east at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie is void of any deep convection and could become a remnant low tomorrow. See latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Broad area of showers and thunderstorms is in the northwestern Caribbean and is associated with the tropical wave that extends from 17N84W across northwest Honduras, east Nicaragua, and Costa Rica to 9N84W. A low pressure area is expected to form over Central America or the adjacent waters moving over the Yucatan Saturday then into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. Currently, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the Caribbean from 14N-19N between 77W-85W. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave inland over Africa extends along 6W from 4N-10N moving west near 25 kt. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb troughing based on GFS model and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N41W to 6N43W moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Any convection is associated with the ITCZ and not the wave itself. Tropical wave inland over Colombia, South America extends along 75W from 2N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt. The wave has been tracked over the last couple of days on satellite imagery as an inverted trough across the South America and the location is based on persistent westerly motion. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are inland and within 60 nm along the west coast of Colombia from 10N-11N. Tropical wave over Central America is now in the Special Features section above. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the Tropical Atlantic near 16N17W to 10N31W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N31W 5N44W into South America near 4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are within 150 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 10N west of 10W, within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-41W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-38W, and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered low is centered over Texas with a 1008 mb surface low near 30N98W. This large upper low covers the Gulf west of 87W. A narrow upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering the remainder of the Gulf. The diffluent environment is generating scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms north of 26N west of 82W to inland over Texas and the remainder of the north Gulf coast. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula. The diurnal surface trough extends at 04/0300 UTC from 23N89W inland over the Yucatan peninsula to 16N92W and is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm west of the trough axis. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that developed early this afternoon over west Cuba have moved into the Gulf waters from 22N-26N between 83W-88W. Isolated showers are possible across the remainder of the Gulf tonight. A low is expected to develop over Central America or the adjacent waters and is expected to pass over the Yucatan Saturday then into the east Gulf Sunday bringing an increase in winds and seas to the east Gulf Sunday into next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near 14N77W and extends into the west Atlantic covering the far east Gulf of Mexico. This is creating a diffluent environment over the north-central Caribbean generating scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 13N to over Cuba between 75W-85W, including Jamaica with isolated showers covering the remainder of the area west of 70W. The easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers over the east Caribbean east of 66W to over the Lesser Antilles. A low is expected to develop over Central America or the adjacent waters Saturday and pass over the Yucatan then into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds are across the central Caribbean and will move into the northwest Caribbean by Sunday where they will persist into early next week. Fresh to strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela through the weekend into next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island. This activity is winding down for the overnight hours. This scenario of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis across east Cuba and then the Florida peninsula to South Carolina. An upper trough covers the remainder of the west Atlantic north of 26N between 66W-77W. These upper features are generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 25N west of 64W through the Straits of Florida. A large upper low covers the Atlantic north of 30N and extends a broad upper trough into the central Atlantic near 30N35W along 21N47W to the Lesser Antilles near 12N61W. A surface ridge dominates the Atlantic south of 32N to over the Florida peninsula with a 1023 mb high near 28N47W, a second near 30N55W, and a 1019 mb high near 30N74W with a weakness in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that extends from 27N72W to over the southern Bahamas near 22N74W and a second extending from 31N42W to 28N52W. This broad surface ridge will retreat eastward as the expected low pressure moves across the east Gulf of Mexico and Florida Sunday into early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW