000 AXNT20 KNHC 032354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 70.5W at 03/2100 UTC or about 250 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about 355 nm NW of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-37N between 69W-71W. See latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N02W to 11N02W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 01W and 05W with isolated moderate convection from 02N-07N between the Prime Meridian and 04W. Tropical wave extends from 04N42W to 12N41W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 38W-46W with no significant deep convection noted on satellite imagery. Tropical wave extends across inland Colombia from 02N73W to 11N73W moving W at 20 kt. The wave has been trackable the last several days across the tropical Atlc and northeastern portion of South America and location is based on persistent W-NW motion. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 10N84W to 18N83W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within the northwestern periphery of a broad cyclonic low-level circulation anchored in the East Pacific region near 11N90W. Associated 850 mb relative vorticity remains focused across the far western Caribbean Sea...Nicaragua...and the Gulf of Honduras per latest global model data this evening. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-18N between 82W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 03N31W to 05N42W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 16W- 30W...and from 04N-07N between 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over Texas centered near 31N97W. This upper level feature supports a broad area of lower pressure across Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley focused on a pair of 1011 mb lows...one centered near 32N99W and the other centered near 28N98W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring N of 25N between 87W and 93W...and offshore of south Texas from 25N-29N W of 96W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring elsewhere from 22N-26N between 91W-96W and off the coast of western Cuba from 22N-24N between 80W-86W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds on the western periphery of a weak ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high centered across the NE Gulf. The middle to upper level low is expected to remain stationary overnight then slowly move S-SW over northern Mexico providing the NW Gulf with increased chances of precipitation through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile...global models indicate an area of developing low pressure across the Gulf of Honduras to move across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and into the south-central Gulf waters Sunday night late into early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by early Tuesday. Likely hazards from this potential area of low pressure will be increased winds and building seas across the NE Gulf waters...in addition to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and possible flooding across central and northern Florida early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near 15N79W and influences a large area of the basin W of 70W with a favorable upper level diffluent environment. This environment along with the presence of a tropical wave along 84W is generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms between 75W and 86W...including the Greater Antilles and their adjacent coastal waters this evening. Within closer proximity to the tropical wave axis...scattered showers and strong tstms are expected to continue across much of Central America through the weekend. Most of this convection is occurring within moderate to fresh trade winds E of 75W...and fresh to strong E-SE winds W of 75W. The area of strong E-SE winds shift westward Saturday across the NW Caribbean waters...as an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday and Saturday night and move N-NW across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday then into the south-central Gulf of Mexico early Monday. Strong to near gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area on its eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and Yucatan Channel region. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters due to peak daytime heating and instability along with an upper level diffluent pattern over the Greater Antilles. This overall pattern is expected to persist Saturday and Sunday with increased probability of afternoon/ evening scattered showers and tstms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of westerly flow aloft W of 70W with an upper level diffluent environment over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. While the westerly flow is promoting fair weather in the vicinity of a 1019 mb high centered near 30N74W...to the south...isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 25N between 70W-80W. Farther east...an upper level trough axis extends along 70W as a mid-level shortwave moves eastward centered near 35N70W. The diffluent flow aloft noted east of the trough axis to 63W is generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 64W and 71W. The upper level troughing will move E of 60W by early next week as an upper level ridge anchored in the NW Caribbean Sea south of Cuba will build over the waters W of 65W. Finally...the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high pressure area anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N30W...a 1023 mb high centered near 29N47W...and a 1024 mb high centered near 30N56W. The only exception to the ridging is a weak cold front draped from 33N40W to 32N46W with isolated showers possible within 150 nm south of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN