000 AXNT20 KNHC 031757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 72.0W at 03/1500 UTC or 174 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Bonnie is forecast to move over cooler sea surface temperatures and is expected to be post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-36N between 71W-73W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 12N39W to 02N40W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is well depicted at the 700mb level and is embedded within a low amplitude moist environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave is inland Venezuela and Colombia from 11N71W to 02N72W moving W at 20 kt. Wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave is over the western Caribbean from 19N84W to 08N81W moving NW at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. A large area of scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the wave axis from 08N-19N between 77W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 04N33W to 05N38W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 05N42W and extends to the coast of South America at 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 00W-03W, and from 05N-08N between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 18W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer low is centered over central Texas near 33N98W. A quasi-stationary front extends south from the center to south Texas near Corpus Christi at 28N97W. A squall line is along the coast of Louisiana from 31N94W to 27N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. SE surface flow is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf, Florida, the Straits of Florida, and w Cuba south of 28N east of 87W. In the upper levels, the upper level low over central Texas has diffluence SE of the center producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Gulf from 20N-25N between 94W-98W. Expect in 24 hours for the surface low to move to near Houston Texas with a cold front extending to S Texas with convection. Also expect the upper level low to drift south to S Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low amplitude tropical wave is over Venezuela and Colombia. Another tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. in addition scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize from 15N-18N between 88W-89W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. In the Upper Levels, an upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean west of 70W enhancing convection. An upper level trough is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the western tropical wave to move NW over the next 24 hours with more convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers, with possible thunderstorms due to upper level diffluence. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N56W. Another 1024 mb high is further east near 28N45W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western Atlantic along 72W. Diffluence east of the trough is producing patches of scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between 65W-70W. Expect in 24 hours for the two surface highs to move some 600 nm ESE. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa