000 AXNT20 KNHC 022346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 746 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.4N 74.8W at 02/2100 UTC or about 35 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 35N-38N between 74W-77W. See latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 01N33W to 10N31W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W with scattered moderate convection occurring primarily west of the wave axis from 06N-10N between 27W-32W. Tropical wave extends across inland Venezuela from 02N64W to 09N63W moving W at 20 kt. The wave has been trackable the last several days across the tropical Atlc and location is based on persistent motion and current low-level global model streamline analysis. Convection appears considerably less than in past days...with only isolated moderate convection occurring across Venezuela E of 67W this evening. Tropical wave extends from 04N77W to 14N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded within the broad cyclonic low-level circulation surrounding northern Colombia with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity focused across the SW Caribbean Sea this evening. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N-17N between 76W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 04N17W to 06N32W to the Equator near 47W. Besides convection associated with the tropical wave above...scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis between 13W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over Texas centered near 31N99W. This upper level feature supports a broad area of lower pressure across Texas and the lower Mississippi River valley focused on a 1012 mb low centered across North Texas. A squall line extends from southwestern LA near 30N94W S-SW to offshore of Brownsville near 26N97W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring N of 25N W of 92W across the NW Gulf waters. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds on the western periphery of a weak ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high centered across the Florida Big Bend region. The middle to upper level low is expected to drift east over eastern Texas through Friday night then move S-SW over northern Mexico providing the NW Gulf with increased chances of precipitation through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile...global models indicate an area of developing low pressure across the Gulf of Honduras to move across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and into the south-central Gulf waters Sunday night late into early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by early Tuesday. Likely hazards from this potential area of low pressure will be increased winds and building seas across the NE Gulf waters...in addition to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and possible flooding across central and northern Florida early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly upper level flow is noted on water vapor imagery across the SW and central Caribbean this evening promoting a diffluent and unstable environment. Given the favorable lifting dynamics and the presence of a tropical wave along 77W in the SW Caribbean...scattered showers and tstms are occurring mainly S of 20N between 71W and 85W...including inland portions of Central America. In addition...scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the Greater Antilles and much of the their adjacent coastal waters this evening due to upper level diffluence and peak daytime heating and instability. Most of this convection is occurring within fresh to strong trade winds that are expected to increase slightly between 68W and 82W through the overnight hours into Friday. As the area of strong trades translates westward Saturday across the NW Caribbean waters...an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night late into early Sunday and move N-NW across the Yucatan peninsula then into the south-central Gulf of Mexico early Monday. Strong to near gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area on its eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and Yucatan Channel region. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the island and adjacent coastal waters due to the base of an upper level trough over eastern Cuba generating diffluence aloft and peak daytime heating and low-level instability. The troughing will lift north of the island Friday night and a general improving trend in conditions is expected as NW flow aloft will persist Saturday and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to upper level trough with axis extending along 76W. The base of the trough is over eastern Cuba this evening with diffluence flow aloft noted east of the trough axis to 64W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 26N between 65W and 79W. Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under a weak surface ridge axis extending from a 1026 mb high centered near 30N56W to the Florida peninsula near 29N81W. The upper level troughing will move E of 60W by early next week as an upper level ridge anchored in the NW Caribbean Sea south of Cuba will build over the waters W of 65W. Finally...the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high pressure area anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N48W and a 1026 mb high centered near 30N56W. The only exception to the ridging spreading eastward to the African coast is a weakening cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N19W meandering SW to near 25N27W with possible isolated showers occurring within 30 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN