000 AXNT20 KNHC 021739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.1N 75.1W at 02/1500 UTC or 22 NM ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 6 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 KT with gusts to 35 KT. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Bonnie is back over the Atlantic Ocean again over a warm section of the Gulf Stream. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is from 35N-37N between 74W-76W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 11N30W to 02N32W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is well depicted at the 700mb level and is embedded within a low amplitude moist environment. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 26W-32W. Tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic from 11N60W to 03N61W moving W at 20 kt. Wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave is over the central Caribbean from 15N76W to 03N76W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a high moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 10N-18N between 76W- 82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues to 05N13W. The ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 05N20W to 07N30W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 05N33W and extends to 03N40W to the coast of South America at 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis between 12W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A shear line is along the coast of Texas from 29N95W to 26N97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the shear line. A 1019 mb high is centered over the Florida panhandle near 30N86W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has weak surface ridging from the Atlantic producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over South Florida, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba south of 27N east of 85W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is over S Texas. Upper level diffluence east of this low is enhancing convection over the western Gulf. An upper level trough is centered over the N Bahamas along 78W. Little change is forecast for the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low amplitude tropical wave is south of Trinidad and another is over the central Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-18N between 76W-82W. Further north, isolated moderate convection is over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the Upper Levels, an upper level trough is over the W Caribbean west of 75W enhancing convection. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to move west over the next 24 hours with convection. Also expect more upper level diffluence over the northeastern Caribbean Sea with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N49W.the tail end of a cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from 31N22W to 26N25W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western Atlantic along 78W. Diffluence east of the trough is producing patches of scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between 65W-74W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa