000 AXNT20 KNHC 011119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W from 2N-11N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust, which is hindering deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 52W from 4N- 14N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 5N-10N between 51W and 57W. Tropical wave is SW of the Windward Islands with axis along 62W moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 7N-11N between 57W and 63W. Tropical wave over Central America with axis along 87W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are affecting NW Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, including adjacent waters in the east Pacific. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 6N19W. The ITCZ begins near 6N19W and then continues along 2N30W to 2N40W to South America near 2N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Gulf being anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N84W while low pressure along Mexico extends to the western Gulf. Gentle variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate winds dominate W of 90W. At the middle to upper levels, ridging covering the Gulf and a trough over the SE CONUS with base extending S into the Caribbean generate a diffluent environment that support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of 23N W of 94W. Surface ridging will persist through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough over the SE CONUS extends across Florida and then S into the Caribbean W of 70W. A low amplitude upper ridge extends N from South America and cover the remainder of the Caribbean. A diffluent environment between this two features aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Mona and Windward passages. Scattered to isolated showers are over the remainder central and eastern basin. Similar shower activity is over the SW Caribbean S of 14N being supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trade winds are across the eastern basin while light and to moderate trades are W of 75W. Over the S Central Caribbean, the latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds S of 14N between 65W and 74W. Winds are expected to increase between Colombia and Jamaica on Wednesday night then expanding across the west Caribbean toward Cuba by the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. This activity is driven by moisture in the region and a diffluent environment aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough over the SE CONUS covers the SW N Atlantic with a narrow upper ridge to the east. The diffluent area between these upper features is supporting scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms S of 30N between 65W-72W. An upper trough in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near 30N27W and extends along 26N36W to 26N44W where it transitions to a surface trough to 30N53W. A pre- frontal trough extends from 28N27W along 25N32W to 24N38W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N47W. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS