000 AXNT20 KNHC 261742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Weak 1014 mb low pressure has developed near 27N69W and is currently interacting with a broad upper level trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ne quadrant of the low. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of a surface trough that extends from 31N68W through the low center, to 21N72W. There is a medium chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave over Africa extends from 13N12W to 06N13W, moving west at around 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 11N42W to 02N42W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a weak low amplitude 700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is likely associated with the ITCZ and not the tropical wave. Tropical wave extends from the southeast Caribbean near 12N65W to inland over South America, moving west around 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. Convection associated with this wave is well inland over South America. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the east tropical Atlc near 12N16W along 08N18W to 04N23W, where the ITCZ begins and continues along 04N30W to just east of the tropical wave near 5N41W. A 1013 mb low is centered near 10N56W with a surface trough extending from 13N55W through the low center to near 07N56W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 18W and 23W. Clusters of moderate convection are within 150 nm of a line from 10N59W to 09N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends from Atlc high pressure west of Bermuda to north Florida to the western Gulf coast near Brownsville, TX. This ridging supports moderate east to southeast winds over the majority of the central and eastern Gulf. Winds increase to fresh southeasterly near the western Gulf coast. Jet stream energy rounding an upper trough inland over the Rockies supports clusters of storms inland over the western Gulf and scattered showers over the Gulf waters within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, a dissipating diurnal surface trough is over the southwest Gulf from 23N93W to 18N94W. Over the next 24 hours thunderstorms will continue over Texas with some possibly reaching the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the southeast Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A surface trough, formerly energy that broke off the tropical wave to the south, extends from the Atlc near 21N62W to 15N63W. No deep convection is noted with this trough. A 1010 mb low is over the southwest Caribbean near 10N79W with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough extending from Costa Rica, through the low center, to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Isolated thunderstorms are south of 12N over the southwest Caribbean. A broad upper trough over the western Atlc and northwest Caribbean supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 18N between 66W and 84W. Mainly moderate easterly trade winds cover the Caribbean today, except locally fresh trades south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Little change is forecast over the next 24 hours. A trough of low pressure southwest of the Windward Islands will bring showers and thunderstorms to those islands by Saturday. HISPANIOLA... A broad upper trough over the western Atlc and northwest Caribbean supports patches of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island today. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N74W and extending a ridge axis across north Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N68W through a 1014 mb low near 27N69W to 21N72W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details regarding this low and convection associated with this entire system. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 21N62W to the Virgin Islands and south over the northeastern Caribbean. No deep convection is noted with this trough. Another surface trough extends from 31N40W to 30N33W. No deep convection is associated with this trough. However, scatterometer data shows fresh winds within 90 nm of the trough axis, shifting abruptly from southwest on the southern side of the trough to northeast on the northern side of the trough. A tropical wave, weak surface low, and associated surface trough are over the tropical Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for further details on these features. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ASL