000 AXNT20 KNHC 240604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave over Africa extends over Ghana moving west at 10- 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows well defined cyclonic turning near 08N02W. Surface observations shows this turning is not at the surface. Easterly wave diagnostics and well defined 850 mb relative vorticity in Hovmoller time sections confirms the placement of this feature. Scattered moderate convection is mostly west of the wave axis from 04N-13N between 02W-06W. Tropical wave extends from 09N28W to 01N29W moving west at 15-20 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 09N45W to 02N47W moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated positive relative vorticity maximum. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. An area of scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 07N- 09N between 39W-43W. Tropical wave extends from 15N74W to 06N73W moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is inland over north Colombia from 04N-12N between 70W-77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N28W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 04N30W and extends to 03N27W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave at 03N49W and continues to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over South Florida from 27N80W to the western Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. Scattered showers are south of the front over the Straits of Florida and western Cuba east of 84W. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. Further west, scattered moderate convection is over South Texas and the western Gulf from 26N-29N between 95W-101W. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge axis is over Texas along 100W. An upper level trough axis is east of Florida along 77W. Thus the upper level winds over the Gulf are from the NW. Expect within the next12hours for the front to completely dissipate. Expect in 24 hours for a surface high to form over the Florida Panhandle with fair weather, while Texas continues to have showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and N Colombia. See above. The surface pressure gradient over the central and western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Scattered showers remain over Panama and Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the central Caribbean with axis along 80W enhancing convection. Expect the tropical wave to be the dominate feature over Caribbean for the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island. have ended over the island. Expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday especially during the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N71W to South Florida at 27N80W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 20N between 68W-78W. A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N43W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N18W to 26N30W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Expect in 24 hours for the western Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Also expect the eastern Atlantic front to move out of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa