000 AXNT20 KNHC 231759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 04N19W to 09N23W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a stretched 700 mb trough with weak relative vorticity from the Equator near 15W to a maximum near 09N26W. No significant deep convection occurring with the wave. Tropical wave extends from 04N45W to 09N41W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a subtle mid-level 700 mb trough and associated relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis near 07N. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 41W and 46W. Tropical wave extends from 04N66W to 12N65W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is located within the southwestern periphery ofamid- level ridge anchored over the Leeward Islands near 18N61W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 65W and 69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N22W to 03N37W to 05N44W to 04N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 22W and 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over the Mid-Atlc coast and Carolinas that supports a weak coldfront analyzed across the southern Florida peninsula from Lake Okeechobee to Fort Myers then to 26N85W where it becomes stationary to 27N92W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring primarily south of the front across the SE Gulf waters E of 88W...including the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of NW flow aloft and gentle to moderateE-SE flow on the southwestern periphery of a ridge anchorebya1017mb high centered across the SE CONUS. While the weak frontal boundary dissipates across the Gulf through tonight...the E-SE flow will persist the next couple of dayswithwinds increasing slightly across the western GulfWednesday through Friday as the pressure gradient strengthens due to a developing area of low pressure across the central plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains relatively strong due to a ridge anchored across the central Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across the basin with the strongest winds occurring across the south- central and SE portion of the basin. As the ridge remains nearlystationary and strengthens slightly...the resulting gradient is expected to maintain the area of fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean primarily E of 76W through late Tuesday. Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 11N across the adjacent coastal waters of Costa Rica...Panama...and Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Conditions remain fairly tranquil across the island with mostly clear skies noted on satellite imagery this afternoon. Dry west- southwesterly flow aloft is further supporting a dry and subsident environment. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered over the Mid-Atlc andCarolinas with troughing dipping southward over much of the SW North Atlc region this afternoon. The trough supports a 1005 mb low centered off the Delmarva near 37N72W with the associated cold front extending S-SW to 32N72W to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurringwithin 300 nm E-SE of the front with an area of scattered showers and tstms farther east from 25N to 29N between63W and69W within an area of maximum middle to upper level diffluence. Farther east...a surface ridge influences muchof the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a weakening 1027mb high centered near 27N40W. Just north of this high center...a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N24Wandextends SW to 28N37W then becomes stationary to 30N51W.Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either sideofthe front. To the north of the front...a 1030 mb high iscentered near 35N44W that will eventually become the dominantfeature across the central Atlc as the front dissipatesovernight into early Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN