000 AXNT20 KNHC 231021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N19W to 00N20W moving west at 10 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 09N42W to 00N43W moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated positive relative vorticity maximum. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 14N63W to 05N64W moving west at 15 kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0114 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave's wind shifts over the Windward Islands. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave at 05N22W and extends to 04N41W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave at 04N44W and extends to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 20W-35W, and from 05N-08N between 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from South Florida near 26N80W to the central Gulf near 27N89W. A stationary front continues to the W Gulf at 28N96W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts over the E Gulf east of 88W. 10 kt northerly winds are north of the front. Further west, scattered moderate convection is near Tampico Mexico and the W Gulf from 21N-23N between 96W- 100W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over North Carolina near 36N78W with axis extending south to the northern Bahamas. Upper level diffluence southeast of the low is enhancing convection over the western Atlantic. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip south to the Straits of Florida while the stationary front over the Gulf dissipates. Also expect in 24 hours for the upper level low to move to the coast of Virginia near 38N73W. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient over the central and western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 07N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean, from 06N-11N between 75W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also inland over southern Guatemala. Scattered showers remain over the Windward Islands. In the upper levels zonal flow prevails with strong subsidence from 12N-20N. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the central Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers have ended over the island. Expect another day of scattered showers for Monday especially during the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N74W to South Florida at 26N80W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 25N between 65W-78W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N30W to 29N44W. A stationary front continues to beyond 31N52W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. Expect in 24 hours for the western Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N69W to the Straits of Florida. Also expect the central Atlantic front to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa