000 AXNT20 KNHC 230544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 10N18W to 00N19W moving west at 10 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 09N40W to 00N41W moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated positive relative vorticity maximum. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 05N63W moving west at 15 kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0114 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave's wind shifts over the Windward Islands. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave at 05N22W and extends to 04N39W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave at 05N43W and extends to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from central Florida near 28N80W to the E Gulf near 27N85W. A stationary front continues to the central Gulf at 27N90W and to the W Gulf at 28N96W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts over the E Gulf east of 90W. 10 kt northerly winds are north of the front. A 1015 mb high is centered over the SE Gulf near 25N85W. 10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the SE Gulf. Further west, scattered moderate convection is over NE Mexico and the W Gulf from 22N-26N between 96W-99W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern CONUS with an axis along 78W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is enhancing convection over the western Atlantic. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip south to South Florida while the stationary front over the Gulf dissipates. Also expect over the next 24 hours for an upper level low to move off the coast of North Carolina near 37N74W. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient over the central and western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-09N between 75W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over W Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Scattered showers remain over central and E Cuba. Elsewhere scattered showers are over the Windward Islands. In the upper levels zonal flow prevails with strong subsidence from 12N-20N. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the central Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers have ended over the island. Expect another day of scattered showers for Monday especially during the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N76W to central Florida at 28N80W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 25N between 65W-80W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 29N43W. A stationary front continues to beyond 31N52W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N39W with mostly fair weather. Expect in 24 hours for a western Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N70W to South Florida. Also expect the central Atlantic front to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa