000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis approximately extending from 08N18W to 01S18W and moving W at 10 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support isolated showers within 200 NM either side of the wave axis, except in its NW environment. Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis approximately extending from 10N38W to 01N40W and moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and associated relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. Saharan Air Layer and CIRA layer precipitable water imagery from the surface to 850 mb show low moisture in the way environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear hinder convection at the time. Tropical wave is over the far SE Caribbean with axis approximately extending from 14N61W to 04N61W and moving W at 15 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery from the surface to 850 mb show moderate moisture in its environment supporting showers S of Granada and adjacent W and E waters. Further convection is being hindered in part by strong deep layer wind shear in the region. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N22W to 03N38W then resumes W of a tropical wave from 03N42W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between the Prime Meridian and 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and the western Atlantic with base extending to the NE Gulf waters supports a 1007 mb low offshore of N Carolina from which a cold front stretches SW across the central Florida peninsula to 27N82W and then into Gulf waters to 27N86W. From there, the front transitions to a stationary front to 28N91W to Texas adjacent waters near 27N95W. Divergent flow aloft between the base of the upper trough and westerly wind across the remainder basin along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support scattered moderate/isolated strong convection and thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 87W and 96W. Otherwise... the remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow as a weak ridge anchored by a 1015 mb high is centered near 25N86W. The weak cold front will move across the southern Florida peninsula through Monday before sunrise. Thereafter through Tuesday...moderate to occasional E-SE flow is forecast across the western Gulf waters as low pressure develops across the central plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains relatively strong due to a ridge anchored across the central Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across the basin with the strongest winds occurring across the south- central portion of the basin. The high is expected to prevail and strengthen, thus maintaining the tight gradient and the area of fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tuesday. A middle level trough is over the western Caribbean providing lifting of abundant moisture in the region to support scattered showers and tstms along Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted over central Haiti. Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring in the far SE basin as a tropical wave moves across the windward islands. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle level trough over the western Caribbean with base S of Jamaica along with shallow moisture across the region support isolated showers and thunderstorms over central Haiti and northern Hispaniola waters. A moist airmass is forecast to enter the island from the S near Monday sunrise and will likely enhance showers in the afternoon hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and the western Atlantic with base extending to the NE Gulf waters supports a 1007 mb low offshore of N Carolina from which a cold front stretches SW from 30N76W to 28N80W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 30N75W to 25N78W and supports a line of showers and thunderstorms N of 26N between 73W and 76W. Farther northeast...a deep layered low is centered over the central North Atlc and supports a cold front analyzed from 30N41W to 29N45W where it becomes stationary to 30N50W. Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 27N36W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos