000 AXNT20 KNHC 221736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 02N44W to 09N37W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis near 07N. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave. Tropical wave extends from 03N59W to 10N58W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a weakening 700 mb trough across Guyana and the adjacent coastal waters. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 56W and 60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N22W to 03N33W to 04N43W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 79N between the Prime Meridian and 13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc that supports a 1008 mb low offshore of the Carolinas and stretches a cold front from thelowto across the northern Florida peninsula then to 29N88Wwhere the front becomes stationary to the Texas and Louisiana border near 30N94W. The front continues along theTexascoast to near Corpus Christi. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 86W and 95W...withstrongeractivity occurring along a squall linesouthofthe front from 28N90W to 28N93W. Otherwise... the remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow as weak ridging anchored by a 1016 mbhigh centered near 26N87W is expected to remain across the eastern Gulf through the overnight into early Monday...while the weak frontal boundary moves eastward into the SW North Atlc region by Monday morning. Thereafter through Tuesday...moderate to occasional E-SE flow is forecast across the western Gulf waters as low pressure develops across the central plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains relatively strong due to a building ridge anchored across the central Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across the basin with the strongest winds occurringacrossthe south-central portion of the basin. As the high shifts west through Monday across the Atlc...the gradient is expected to maintain the area of fresh to strong trades acrossthe eastern and central Caribbean primarily E of 76W. Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean with only a few isolated showers andtstms occurring S of 10N across the adjacent coastal watersofPanama. ...HISPANIOLA... Conditions remain fairly tranquil across the island with mostly clear skies noted on satellite imagery this afternoon. Dry westerly flow aloft is further supporting a dry and subsident environment. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is centered over the NE CONUSwith troughing dipping southward over much of the SW NorthAtlc region this afternoon. The trough supports a 1008 mblow centered off the Carolina coast near 34N77W with the associated cold front extending SW to the northern Florida peninsula near 30N81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms areoccurring N of 30N between 73W and 77W. A pre-frontal surfacetrough is analyzed from 29N78w to the Florida Straitsnear25N80W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring wellto the east of the boundary N of 23N between 65W and 73W.This convection is largely enhanced by middle to upper leveldiffluence east of the broad troughing aloft. Farther northeast...a deep layered low is centered over the central North Atlc and supports a cold front analyzed from 32N38W to 30N49W where it becomes stationary to 30N54W...then a warmfrontto 32N63W. Possible isolated showers are within 90nmeither side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN