000 AXNT20 KNHC 211746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 02N39W to 08N36W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associatedrelative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the waveaxis near 06N. No significant deep convection is noted withthe wave. Tropical wave extends from 03N52W to 09N50W moving W at 10 kt. This wave coincides with a weaker 700 mb trough acrossFrenchGuiana and the adjacent coastal waters. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... -The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11Wto05N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extendsfrom 05N25W to 05N38W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between the Prime Meridian and 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the SE CONUS with global models indicating a thin ribbon of 500 mb relative vorticity extending from the northern Florida peninsula to the southwestern Louisiana coast. This troughing and mid-level energy is supporting a surface trough analyzed from the Florida panhandle near 30N87W to 28N90W and a warm front analyzed from the south-central Louisiana coast near 30N92W to the Texas coast near 29N96W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring mainly with the warm front in the vicinity of 28N94W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow as weak ridging is expected across the eastern Gulf through Sunday while a weak frontal boundary..currently stationary...begins to moveeastward as a cold front tonight into Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remainsrelatively strong due to a nearly stationary ridge anchored across the central Atlc and lower pressure noted acrossnorthern South America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across the basin with winds strongto near gale force within close proximity to the coast ofColombia. As the high shifts east through Sunday across the Atlc...the gradient is expected to relax with the area of fresh to strong trades shifting east as well to primarily S of 15N between 64W and 74W. Otherwise...an upper level trough is notedon water vapor imagery across the eastern Caribbean with axis along 63W. East of the axis in the region of maximum lifting dynamics...scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the Windward Islands S of 15N between 58W and 62W. ...HISPANIOLA... Conditions remain fairly tranquil across the island withmostlyclear skies noted on satellite imagery this afternoon.Dry northwesterly flow aloft is further supportingadryand subsident environment forecast through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered over the Ohio Rivervalley this afternoon supporting a surface trough extendingfrom the North Carolina coast to 32N77W to 28N81W.Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurringNof28NWof 74W. Farther east...a deep layered lowiscentered over the central North Atlc and supports acoldfront analyzed from 32N54W to 29N64W where is becomesstationary to 29N71W. Widely scattered showers andisolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either sideofthefront. Otherwise...the remainder of the centralandeastern Atlc is under the influence of a surfaceridgeanchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN