000 AXNT20 KNHC 211051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N35W to 00N37W moving west at 15 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0010 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass depicted the wave's wind shifts. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 12N50W to 04N51W moving west at 10 kt. This wave also coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0014 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave's wind shifts. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N24W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave at 03N38W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 02W-10W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 10W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, A warm front extends from southern Louisiana near 29N92W to N of Corpus Christi Texas near 29N96W. The front is mostly void of precipitation, however radar imagery shows a small area of showers within 15 nm radius of 28N96W. 10 kt northerly winds are N of the front. Further east, radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf from 24N-25N between 81W-83W. Elsewhere south of the front 10-15 kt southerly winds are noted with mostly fair weather. In the upper levels...an upper level low is centered over Ohio with a trough axis extending south to the Florida Panhandle. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is enhancing upper level cloudiness over the far eastern Gulf and Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for a quasi-stationary front to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States with showers. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level low to shift east to New England. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-30 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of NW Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is inland over SW Guatemala. Scattered showers remain over E Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Elsewhere scattered moderate convection is over Trinidad, while scattered showers are over the Windward Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over Belize. Upper level diffluence SW of the center is enhancing the convection over SW Guatemala. An upper level trough is over the eastern Caribbean. Upper level diffluence SE of the trough is enhancing the convection over Trinidad. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the SE Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola supported by surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a diffluent environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are off the Florida coast and over the northern Bahamas N of 25N and W of 78W due primarily to upper level diffluence. Farther east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N71W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N37W with mostly fair weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to move east to 31N48W with convection. Also expect the surface high to move east to 30N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa