000 AXNT20 KNHC 210559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 07N33W to 00N36W moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture present in SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0010 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted the wind shifts. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis. Tropical wave extends from 11N49W to 04N50W moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture present in SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A 0014 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted the wind shifts. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N18W to 06N26W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 05N33W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave at 04N38W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 02W-10W, and from 04N-08N between 10W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Louisiana near 29N92W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. 10 kt northerly winds are N of the front. Further east, an outflow boundary is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida from 31N84W to 27N90W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 25N E of 90W. Elsewhere south of the front and outflow boundary 10-15 kt southerly winds are noted with mostly fair weather. In the upper levels...the base of an upper level trough is over the Mississippi Valley. Upper level diffluence is east of the trough over the eastern Gulf enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for a front to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States with convection. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level trough to shift east to New England. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across the northern Caribbean generating a tight pressure gradient that supports fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 68W and 80W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the basin. A diffluent environment aloft between ridging over the western Caribbean and a trough over the central and eastern basin supports showers along the Cuba mountain range and over SW Hispaniola. Another diffluent environment aloft east of the Eastern Caribbean trough is producing scattered showers over the Windward Islands. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the SE Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are across SW Hispaniola being supported by surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a diffluent environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of a squall line continue to support scattered showers within 90 NM off the Florida coast S of 29N. Farther east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N60W to 27N73W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N39W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to move east to 31N50W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa