000 AXNT20 KNHC 210002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W then continues to 07N19W to 06N25W where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ then extends to 05N32W to 03N36W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of 20W. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 02S to 09N between 22W and 42W and from 07N to 16N between 45W and 62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana, then along Texas adjacent waters from 29N92W to 25N97W. A diffluent environment aloft in the NE Gulf between westerly flow and the base of an upper trough over the lower Mississippi Valley along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 26N E of 91W. Fair weather is elsewhere. These thunderstorms generated an outflow boundary or gust front from approximately 30N83W to 27N90W with fresh to near gale force winds ahead of it as indicated by the latest scatterometer pass. Except for the aforementioned region, SE gentle to moderate flow covers the basin ahead of the front while NE winds of the same magnitude are W of the frontal boundary. Within 60 NM off the northern Yucatan Peninsula, a tighter pressure gradient continue to support moderate to fresh easterly flow. The front will weaken across the NW Gulf waters while the portion N of the area stalls along the northern Gulf coast through early Sunday. Then near sunrise the front will transition into a cold front to move across NE waters and the Florida peninsula through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 68W and 80W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder basin. A diffluent environment aloft between ridging over the western Caribbean and a trough over the central and eastern basin along with moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic support showers along the Cuba mountain range and over SW Hispaniola. Isolated showers are likely for the windward islands as high moisture from the tropical Atlantic continue to enter the Caribbean. Winds will diminish in the south central basin on Sunday near sunrise. HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are across SW Hispaniola being supported by moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by SE to S flow and a diffluent environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist through the remainder weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnants of a squall line continue to support scattered showers within 90 NM off the Florida coast S of 29N. Farther east, the tail of a frontal boundary stalls from 30N63W to 27N75W and support scattered to isolated showers N of 26N between 65W and 74W. Otherwise, the remainder basin continues to be dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high SW of the Azores islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos