000 AXNT20 KNHC 201735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 06N35W to the coast of South America near 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 26W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front continues across the NW Gulf waters extending from 26N97W to 30N93W. To the E, squall line extends from 28N86W to 30N85W. In between these features...a diffluent flow aloft supports an area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 28N between 85W and 92W. To the SW, a surface trough was analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 20N94W to 24N92W. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict a gentle to moderate SE flow prevailing across the basin. Expect for the stationary front to prevail across the NW Gulf while weakening during the next 24 hours. The squall line and convection across the NE Gulf will continue moving E reaching the northern portion of the Florida peninsula and W Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface ridge that dominates the central and E Atlantic extends S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. To the S, The proximity of the EPAC Monsoon Trough is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 80W and 84W. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the basin as noted in scatterometer data. A similar weather pattern will prevail during the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop due to low-level moisture being carried by the trades coupled with daytime heating. This pattern will prevail during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak shortwave moving across the W Atlantic is supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate convection mainly W of 70W. To the E...a cold front extends from 28N73W to 32N64W. Isolated moderate convection is observed along the front. A broad area of high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin centered by a 1029 mb high near 31N37W. A surface trough extends across northern Guyana and into the Atlantic from 07N58W to 13N52W. Isolated moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the trough between 54W and 61W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front to continue moving E with convection. Surface ridging will continue across the central and E Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA