000 AXNT20 KNHC 201024 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 04N37W to the coast of South America near 06N57W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 21W- 33W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 43W- 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends across southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, then along Texas coastal waters from 29N92W to 26N97W. A squall line is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle from 31N85W to 29N88W. Numerous strong convection is associated with the squall line. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are over south Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt SE surface flow with mostly fair weather. In the upper levels...the base of an upper level trough is over Texas. Upper level diffluence is east of the trough over the western Gulf enhancing convection. Expect over the next 48 hours for a front to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States with convection. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level trough over Texas to move east to the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers within 60 NM of the southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama coasts. Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major changes to occur the next two days. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support scattered moderate convection over the western Atlantic N of 26N W of 71W. Further east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N67W to 28N73W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N42W. Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central Atlantic from the north and reach 31N60W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa