000 AXNT20 KNHC 200538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 05N30W to the coast of South America near 06N57W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 26w- 33w. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 44W- 54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across southern Alabama, Mississippi and SW Louisiana, then along Texas coastal waters from 29N92W to 26N97W. A squall line is over the western Gulf of Mexico from SE Louisiana at 29N90W to 26N95W. Numerous strong convection is associated with the squall line. Elsewhere scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are over central Florida and western Cuba. The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt SE surface flow with mostly fair weather. In the upper levels...the base of an upper level trough is over Texas. Upper level diffluence is east of the trough over the western Gulf greatly enhancing convection. Expect over the next 48 hours for a front to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States with convection. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level trough over Texas to move east to the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers within 60 NM of the southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama coasts. Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major changes to occur the next two days. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support scattered moderate convection over the western Atlantic N of 26N W of 71W. Further east, a surface trough extends from 31N66W to 28N71W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N40W. Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central Atlantic from the north and reach 31N61W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa