000 AXNT20 KNHC 200003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W then continuing to 08N20W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 05N38W to over the north South America coast near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N W of 46W. Isolated showers are elsewhere within 200 NM of the ITCZ and monsoon trough E of 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across southern Alabama, Mississippi and SW Louisiana, then along Texas coastal waters from 29N92W to 26N97W. A diffluent environment aloft in the NW Gulf between westerly flow and the base of an upper trough N of the area along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 26N W of 92W. Fair weather is elsewhere. Scatterometer data depict gentle SE flow W of 90W and gentle variable wind elsewhere. The exception is within 60 NM off the northern Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough inland generates a tighter pressure gradient to support moderate to fresh easterly flow. The front will prevail stationary over NW Gulf waters through early Sunday. Then near sunrise it will extend along the northern Gulf coastal waters before transitioning into a cold front to move across NE waters and the Florida peninsula through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon trough support scattered to isolated showers within 60 NM off the southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama coasts. Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major changes to occur the next two days. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SW N Atlantic N of 26N W of 71W. In this region, a surface trough that extends from 30N68W to 27N72W contributes to the convection. Otherwise, the remainder basin continues to be dominated by surface ridging anchored SW of the Azores islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos