000 AXNT20 KNHC 191734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 08N17W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N33W to over the South America coast near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 NM N of the ITCZ and W of 46W while isolated convection is within 200 NM N of the same boundary between 25W and 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across northern Mexico and the Gulf states coastline as a stationary front to 28N91W then continues as a cold front to 30N86W. To the E of the cold front, a surface trough extends from 28N86W to 30N85W. Another surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 27N89W. No significant convection is related to any of these features. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the SE Gulf waters affecting the Florida Keys and Straits from 23N-25N and E of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a surface low to form over southern Texas and move E enhancing convection across the NW Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad area of high pressure that prevails across the Atlantic extends SW reaching the Caribbean. The pressure gradient generated by this high pressure combined with the low pressure across northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean mainly S of 15N between 70W- 78W. The proximity of the monsoon trough currently extending over Costa Rica and Panama, is supporting scattered moderate convection across S of 12n between 80W-84W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the reminder of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data. Low-level moisture transported by the trades is generating isolated convection that is moving quickly across the basin. Expect a similar weather patter to prevail during the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the island due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. This pattern will repeat tomorrow. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper-level trough over the west Atlantic is supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate convection across the area mainly W of 70W. A surface trough extends from 25N77W to 29N73W, then transitions into a cold front from that point to 31N69W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin as a broad area of high pressure prevails, centered near 34N32W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front and trough to drift E while weakening. Isolated convection will continue across the W Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA