000 AXNT20 KNHC 191103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N28W 5N45W to inland over South America near 5N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60/75 NM of 7N between 47W-52W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 2N to the coast of southwest Africa east of 4W to across the Prime Meridian, within 120 NM north of the ITCZ between 25W-38W, and from 6N-9N between 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the Gulf of Mexico with westerly winds aloft. Divergent flow aloft is enhancing scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf south of 26N between 80W-86W. A diurnal surface trough extends from 23N94W to inland over south Mexico to 17N93W generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms inland over Mexico and possible isolated showers over the Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 92W-96W. A broad low amplitude upper trough covers the northeast CONUS supporting a cold front that enters the Gulf near the Florida/Alabama border along 29N90W to the Texas coast near 29N95W then continues as a stationary front across south Texas and north Mexico. A surface trough precedes this front extending from southwest Georgia near 32N84W across the Florida panhandle to 28N87W. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to over the east Gulf. This weak surface ridge will maintain southeast return flow over the Gulf through Saturday. The frontal boundary across the north Gulf will dissipate later today. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the west Caribbean to 73W with near zonal westerly flow aloft across the remainder of the Caribbean basin. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 10N between 76W-83W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies except some lingering clouds over the Gulf of Honduras. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend. HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across the island again this morning. Moisture will remain limited through Friday night then increase again for the remainder of the weekend. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper trough over the west Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the region near 32N70W and extends to 29N73W where a surface trough continues to the Bahamas near 25N78W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm east of the front/trough. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are over the far west Atlantic south of 28N west of 77W to inland over Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high near 34N33W and a 1030 mb high near 32N40W, extending a ridge axis southwest through 30N55W to across south Florida and into the east Gulf of Mexico. The west Atlantic cold front will stall and dissipate tonight into Friday. The next strong cold front is expected Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW