000 AXNT20 KNHC 190531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 6N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 3N32W 5N46W to inland over South America near 4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120/150 NM north of ITCZ between 23W-33W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N to the coast of southwest Africa east of 4W to across the Prime Meridian and within 60 nm of a line from 6N37W to 9N46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the Gulf of Mexico with westerly winds aloft. A shortwave upper trough is just off the east coast of florida and coupled with lingering low level moisture is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 28N east of 85W to over the Florida peninsula. A diurnal surface trough extends from 23N88W to inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near Merida to northwest Guatemala is generating isolated showers/thunderstorms within 45 nm of the trough over the Gulf waters. A broad low amplitude upper trough covers the northeast CONUS supporting a frontal boundary that extends inland over the north Gulf coast from Louisiana to Texas. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to over the east Gulf. This weak surface ridge will maintain southeast return flow over the Gulf through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the northwest Gulf tonight through Thursday then stall and dissipate late Thursday. Return flow is forecast to strengthen briefly on Friday before diminishing again late Friday and Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the west Caribbean to 75W with near zonal westerly flow aloft across the remainder of the Caribbean basin. A diurnal surface trough that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near Merida to northwest Guatemala is generating scattered showers/thunderstorms inland over the Yucatan with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 21N west of 86W. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed inland over Hispaniola and Cuba have weakened with only isolated showers remaining. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean south of 10N between 79W-82W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean under clear skies tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers, remnants of the afternoon thunderstorms, remain across the west portion of the island tonight west of 70W. Moisture will remain limited through Friday and increase again on Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper trough extends from off the Georgia coast to just east of the Florida peninsula to the Bahamas near 25N77W generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 27N west of 76W. A cold front extends into the west Atlantic near 32N73W to 31N74W where a surface trough continues to 28N79W with isolated showers within 60 NM of the front/trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N32W and a 1031 mb high near 32N41W and extending a ridge axis southwest through 30N54W to across south Florida and into the east Gulf of Mexico. The west Atlantic cold front will shift southeast across the northern waters tonight. The front will weaken and stall Thursday and Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW